Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin
We consider the classical risk model and carry out a sensitivity and robustness analysis of finite-time ruin probabilities. We provide algorithms to compute the related influence functions. We also prove the weak convergence of a sequence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities starting from zero initial reserve toward a Gaussian random variable. We define the concepts of reliable finite-time ruin probability as a Value-at-Risk of the estimator of the finite-time ruin probability. To control this robust risk measure, an additional initial reserve is needed and called Estimation Risk Solvency Margin (ERSM). We apply our results to show how portfolio experience could be rewarded by cut-offs in solvency capital requirements. An application to catastrophe contamination and numerical examples are also developed.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004.
"Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities,"
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
- Didier Rullière & Stéphane Loisel, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefèvre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Post-Print hal-00379412, HAL.
- Christian Mazza & Didier Rullière, 2004.
"A link between wave governed random motions and ruin processes,"
- Mazza, Christian & Rulliere, Didier, 2004. "A link between wave governed random motions and ruin processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 205-222, October.
- Hipp, Christian, 1989. "Estimators and Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Ruin Probabilities," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(01), pages 57-70, April.
- Croux, Kristof & Veraverbeke, Noel, 1990. "Nonparametric estimators for the probability of ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2-3), pages 127-130, September.
- H. Panjer, Harry & Shaun Wang, 2, 1993. "On the Stability of Recursive Formulas," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(02), pages 227-258, November.
- Marceau, Etienne & Rioux, Jacques, 2001. "On robustness in risk theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 167-185, October.
- Frees, Edward W., 1986. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Ruin," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 81-90, April.
- Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Krachunov, Rossen S., 2001. "An improved finite-time ruin probability formula and its Mathematica implementation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-386, December.
- Panjer, Harry H., 1981. "Recursive Evaluation of a Family of Compound Distributions," ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the International Actuarial Association, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(01), pages 22-26, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:42:y:2008:i:2:p:746-762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.