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Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities

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  • Claude Lefèvre

    (Université Libre de Bruxelles)

  • Stéphane Loisel

    (Université de Lyon)

Abstract

An important question in insurance is how to evaluate the probabilities of (non-) ruin of a company over any given horizon of finite length. This paper aims to present some (not all) useful methods that have been proposed so far for computing, or approximating, these probabilities in the case of discrete claim severities. The starting model is the classical compound Poisson risk model with constant premium and independent and identically distributed claim severities. Two generalized versions of the model are then examined. The former incorporates a non-constant premium function and a non-stationary claim process. The latter takes into account a possible interdependence between the successive claim severities. Special attention will be paid to a recursive computational method that enables us to tackle, in a simple and unified way, the different models under consideration. The approach, still relatively little known, relies on the use of remarkable families of polynomials which are of Appell or generalized Appell (Sheffer) types. The case with dependent claim severities will be revisited accordingly.

Suggested Citation

  • Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2009. "Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Discrete, Possibly Dependent, Claim Severities," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 425-441, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:metcap:v:11:y:2009:i:3:d:10.1007_s11009-009-9123-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11009-009-9123-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rulliere, Didier & Loisel, Stephane, 2004. "Another look at the Picard-Lefevre formula for finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 187-203, October.
    2. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2008. "Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 746-762, April.
    3. Biard, Romain & Lefèvre, Claude & Loisel, Stéphane, 2008. "Impact of correlation crises in risk theory: Asymptotics of finite-time ruin probabilities for heavy-tailed claim amounts when some independence and stationarity assumptions are relaxed," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 412-421, December.
    4. Dickson,David C. M., 2005. "Insurance Risk and Ruin," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521846400.
    5. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2008. "On Finite-Time Ruin Probabilities for Classical Risk Models," Post-Print hal-00168958, HAL.
    6. Romain Biard & Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel, 2008. "Impact of correlation crises in risk theory," Post-Print hal-00308782, HAL.
    7. Stéphane Loisel & Nicolas Privault, 2009. "Sensitivity analysis and density estimation for finite-time ruin probabilities," Post-Print hal-00201347, HAL.
    8. Ignatov, Zvetan G. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Krachunov, Rossen S., 2001. "An improved finite-time ruin probability formula and its Mathematica implementation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 375-386, December.
    9. De Vylder, F. & Goovaerts, M. J., 1988. "Recursive calculation of finite-time ruin probabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 1-7, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Goffard, Pierre-Olivier & Lefèvre, Claude, 2018. "Duality in ruin problems for ordered risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 44-52.
    2. Dimitrova, Dimitrina S. & Kaishev, Vladimir K. & Zhao, Shouqi, 2016. "On the evaluation of finite-time ruin probabilities in a dependent risk model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 275(C), pages 268-286.
    3. Dutang, C. & Lefèvre, C. & Loisel, S., 2013. "On an asymptotic rule A+B/u for ultimate ruin probabilities under dependence by mixing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 774-785.
    4. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    5. Castañer, A. & Claramunt, M.M. & Lefèvre, C., 2013. "Survival probabilities in bivariate risk models, with application to reinsurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 632-642.
    6. Andrius Grigutis & Jonas Šiaulys, 2020. "Ultimate Time Survival Probability in Three-Risk Discrete Time Risk Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-30, January.
    7. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2017. "On the First Crossing of Two Boundaries by an Order Statistics Risk Process," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Claude Lefèvre & Philippe Picard, 2014. "Ruin Probabilities for Risk Models with Ordered Claim Arrivals," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 885-905, December.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Goffard, 2019. "Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions," Working Papers hal-01716687, HAL.
    10. Mathieu Bargès & Stéphane Loisel & Xavier Venel, 2011. "On finite-time ruin probabilities with reinsurance cycles influenced by large claims," Post-Print hal-00430178, HAL.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Goffard & Claude Lefèvre, 2018. "Duality in ruin problems for ordered risk models," Post-Print hal-01398910, HAL.
    12. Lefèvre, Claude & Picard, Philippe, 2011. "A new look at the homogeneous risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 512-519.
    13. Florin Avram & Romain Biard & Christophe Dutang & Stéphane Loisel & Landy Rabehasaina, 2014. "A survey of some recent results on Risk Theory," Post-Print hal-01616178, HAL.
    14. Dimitrina S. Dimitrova & Zvetan G. Ignatov & Vladimir K. Kaishev, 2019. "Ruin and Deficit Under Claim Arrivals with the Order Statistics Property," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 511-530, June.
    15. Pierre-O. Goffard, 2019. "Fraud risk assessment within blockchain transactions," Post-Print hal-01716687, HAL.
    16. Bihao Su & Chenglong Xu & Jingchao Li, 2022. "A Deep Neural Network Approach to Solving for Seal’s Type Partial Integro-Differential Equation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-21, May.

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