IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v13y2020i12p298-d453207.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonparametric Estimation of the Ruin Probability in the Classical Compound Poisson Risk Model

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan Gao

    (School of Mathematical Sciences, Qufu Normal University, Qufu 273165, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Lingju Chen

    (College of Mathematics and Data Science, Minjiang University, Fuzhou 350108, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Jiancheng Jiang

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, School of Data Science, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC 28223, USA
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

  • Honglong You

    (School of Statistics, Qufu Normal University, Qufu 273165, China
    These authors contributed equally to this work.)

Abstract

In this paper we study estimating ruin probability which is an important problem in insurance. Our work is developed upon the existing nonparametric estimation method for the ruin probability in the classical risk model, which employs the Fourier transform but requires smoothing on the density of the sizes of claims. We propose a nonparametric estimation approach which does not involve smoothing and thus is free of the bandwidth choice. Compared with the Fourier-transformation-based estimators, our estimators have simpler forms and thus are easier to calculate. We establish asymptotic distributions of our estimators, which allows us to consistently estimate the asymptotic variances of our estimators with the plug-in principle and enables interval estimates of the ruin probability.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan Gao & Lingju Chen & Jiancheng Jiang & Honglong You, 2020. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Ruin Probability in the Classical Compound Poisson Risk Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-12, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:298-:d:453207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/298/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/13/12/298/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Pitts, 1994. "Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 46(3), pages 537-555, September.
    2. Landriault, David & Willmot, Gordon, 2008. "On the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function in the Sparre Andersen model with an arbitrary interclaim time distribution," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 600-608, April.
    3. Baumgartner, Benjamin & Gatto, Riccardo, 2010. "A Bootstrap Test for the Probability of Ruin in the Compound Poisson Risk Process," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(1), pages 241-255, May.
    4. Cai, Jun & Wu, Yanhong, 1997. "Some improvements on the Lundberg bound for the ruin probability," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 395-403, May.
    5. Frees, Edward W., 1986. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Probability of Ruin," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S1), pages 81-90, April.
    6. You, Honglong & Guo, Junyi & Jiang, Jiancheng, 2020. "Interval estimation of the ruin probability in the classical compound Poisson risk model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Croux, Kristof & Veraverbeke, Noel, 1990. "Nonparametric estimators for the probability of ruin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2-3), pages 127-130, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Jiayi & Zhang, Zhimin, 2020. "Statistical estimation for some dividend problems under the compound Poisson risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 101-115.
    2. Yuan Gao & Honglong You, 2021. "The Speed of Convergence of the Threshold Estimator of Ruin Probability under the Tempered α -Stable Lévy Subordinator," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-9, October.
    3. Kang Hu & Ya Huang & Yingchun Deng, 2023. "Estimating the Gerber–Shiu Function in the Two-Sided Jumps Risk Model by Laguerre Series Expansion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-30, April.
    4. Wen Su & Yunyun Wang, 2021. "Estimating the Gerber-Shiu Function in Lévy Insurance Risk Model by Fourier-Cosine Series Expansion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-18, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. You, Honglong & Guo, Junyi & Jiang, Jiancheng, 2020. "Interval estimation of the ruin probability in the classical compound Poisson risk model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Yuan Gao & Honglong You, 2021. "The Speed of Convergence of the Threshold Estimator of Ruin Probability under the Tempered α -Stable Lévy Subordinator," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(21), pages 1-9, October.
    3. Honglong You & Yuan Gao, 2019. "Non-Parametric Threshold Estimation for the Wiener–Poisson Risk Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-11, June.
    4. Zhang, Zhimin & Yang, Hailiang, 2013. "Nonparametric estimate of the ruin probability in a pure-jump Lévy risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 24-35.
    5. Zhang, Zhimin & Yang, Hailiang, 2014. "Nonparametric estimation for the ruin probability in a Lévy risk model under low-frequency observation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 168-177.
    6. S. Pitts, 1994. "Nonparametric estimation of compound distributions with applications in insurance," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 46(3), pages 537-555, September.
    7. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2009. "Convergence and asymptotic variance of bootstrapped finite-time ruin probabilities with partly shifted risk processes," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 374-381, December.
    8. Loisel, Stéphane & Mazza, Christian & Rullière, Didier, 2008. "Robustness analysis and convergence of empirical finite-time ruin probabilities and estimation risk solvency margin," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 746-762, April.
    9. Oshime, Takayoshi & Shimizu, Yasutaka, 2018. "Parametric inference for ruin probability in the classical risk model," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 28-37.
    10. Li Qin & Susan M. Pitts, 2012. "Nonparametric Estimation of the Finite-Time Survival Probability with Zero Initial Capital in the Classical Risk Model," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 919-936, December.
    11. Zan Yu & Lianzeng Zhang, 2024. "Computing the Gerber-Shiu function with interest and a constant dividend barrier by physics-informed neural networks," Papers 2401.04378, arXiv.org.
    12. Franck Adékambi & Essodina Takouda, 2020. "Gerber–Shiu Function in a Class of Delayed and Perturbed Risk Model with Dependence," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, March.
    13. Lauer, Alexandra & Zähle, Henryk, 2017. "Bootstrap consistency and bias correction in the nonparametric estimation of risk measures of collective risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 99-108.
    14. Georgios Psarrakos, 2016. "An Operator Property of the Distribution of a Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process with Applications," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1197-1215, December.
    15. Albrecher, Hansjörg & Constantinescu, Corina & Pirsic, Gottlieb & Regensburger, Georg & Rosenkranz, Markus, 2010. "An algebraic operator approach to the analysis of Gerber-Shiu functions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 42-51, February.
    16. Xie, Jiayi & Zhang, Zhimin, 2020. "Statistical estimation for some dividend problems under the compound Poisson risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 101-115.
    17. Cheung, Eric C.K., 2011. "A generalized penalty function in Sparre Andersen risk models with surplus-dependent premium," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 384-397, May.
    18. Ehyter Matías Martín-González & Antonio Murillo-Salas & Henry Pantí, 2022. "Gerber-Shiu Function for a Class of Markov-Modulated Lévy Risk Processes with Two-Sided Jumps," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 2779-2800, December.
    19. Tang, Qihe & Wei, Li, 2010. "Asymptotic aspects of the Gerber-Shiu function in the renewal risk model using Wiener-Hopf factorization and convolution equivalence," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 19-31, February.
    20. Chau, K.W. & Yam, S.C.P. & Yang, H., 2015. "Fourier-cosine method for Gerber–Shiu functions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 170-180.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:13:y:2020:i:12:p:298-:d:453207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.