IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v126y2026ics0167668725001477.html

The ultimate drawdown insurance and its state-dependent premium

Author

Listed:
  • Xu, Duo
  • Li, Shu

Abstract

The analysis of drawdown risk is attracting growing interest thanks to its valuable insights into risk management. In this paper, we analyze an insurance contract designed to provide protection against the risk of market drawdown, where the claim is triggered by an ultimate drawdown. The concept of the ultimate drawdown was introduced in Li and Zhou (2022), which occurs either when the drawdown size exceeds a soft barrier for an extended period (so-called the Parisian drawdown), or when the drawdown size exceeds a significantly hard barrier. We propose the state-dependent premium structure for the ultimate drawdown insurance, where the premium are collected when the underlying process is in the financial non-distress state. Under the Lévy insurance framework, we analytically derive the fair market premium for the proposed premium structure. Furthermore, we explore the policyholder’s optimal surrender strategy when the contract allows for a cancellation feature. We demonstrate the merits of the proposed premium structure on the surrender risk, by comparing it to the constant premium structure. Numerical examples are provided for illustration. In addition, we examine some drawdown-related penalty functions of interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Xu, Duo & Li, Shu, 2026. "The ultimate drawdown insurance and its state-dependent premium," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:126:y:2026:i:c:s0167668725001477
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103201
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167668725001477
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2025.103201?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Li, Shu, 2015. "Analysis of a drawdown-based regime-switching Lévy insurance model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-107.
    2. Zhou, Jiang & Wu, Lan, 2015. "The time of deducting fees for variable annuities under the state-dependent fee structure," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 125-134.
    3. Loeffen, Ronnie L. & Renaud, Jean-François & Zhou, Xiaowen, 2014. "Occupation times of intervals until first passage times for spectrally negative Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(3), pages 1408-1435.
    4. David Landriault & Bin Li & Dongchen Li & Yumin Wang, 2021. "High‐water mark fee structure in variable annuities," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 88(4), pages 1057-1094, December.
    5. Palmowski, Zbigniew & Tumilewicz, Joanna, 2018. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying Lévy assets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    6. Li, Shu & Zhou, Xiaowen, 2022. "The Parisian and ultimate drawdowns of Lévy insurance models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 140-160.
    7. Li, Yingqiu & Zhou, Xiaowen, 2014. "On pre-exit joint occupation times for spectrally negative Lévy processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 48-55.
    8. Anne MacKay & Maciej Augustyniak & Carole Bernard & Mary R. Hardy, 2017. "Risk Management of Policyholder Behavior in Equity-Linked Life Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(2), pages 661-690, June.
    9. Libor Pospisil & Jan Vecer, 2010. "Portfolio sensitivity to changes in the maximum and the maximum drawdown," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 617-627.
    10. Zhang, Hongzhong & Leung, Tim & Hadjiliadis, Olympia, 2013. "Stochastic modeling and fair valuation of drawdown insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 840-850.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Lkabous, Mohamed Amine, 2021. "On the analysis of deep drawdowns for the Lévy insurance risk model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 147-155.
    2. Li, Shu & Zhou, Xiaowen, 2022. "The Parisian and ultimate drawdowns of Lévy insurance models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 140-160.
    3. Hongzhong Zhang, 2018. "Stochastic Drawdowns," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 10078.
    4. Wang, Gu & Zou, Bin, 2021. "Optimal fee structure of variable annuities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 587-601.
    5. Zbigniew Palmowski & Paweł Stȩpniak, 2026. "Pricing American options time-capped by a drawdown event," Mathematics and Financial Economics, Springer, volume 20, number 5, December.
    6. Pawe{l} Stc{e}pniak & Zbigniew Palmowski, 2025. "Pricing time-capped American options using Least Squares Monte Carlo method," Papers 2503.01040, arXiv.org.
    7. Landriault, David & Li, Bin & Wong, Jeff T.Y. & Xu, Di, 2018. "Poissonian potential measures for Lévy risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    8. Zbigniew Palmowski & Pawe{l} Stc{e}pniak, 2025. "Pricing American options time-capped by a drawdown event in a L\'evy market," Papers 2508.20677, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2025.
    9. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2018. "Drawdown insurance contracts for the Lévy-type model with the phase-type jump distribution and general reward function," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 51, pages 255-270.
    10. Zbigniew Palmowski & Pawe{l} Stc{e}pniak, 2025. "Pricing American Options Time-Capped by a Drawdown Event," Papers 2509.00999, arXiv.org.
    11. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Fair valuation of L\'evy-type drawdown-drawup contracts with general insured and penalty functions," Papers 1712.04418, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2018.
    12. Xuebing Kuang & Xiaowen Zhou, 2017. "n -Dimensional Laplace Transforms of Occupation Times for Spectrally Negative Lévy Processes," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-14, January.
    13. David Landriault & Bin Li & Hongzhong Zhang, 2014. "On the Frequency of Drawdowns for Brownian Motion Processes," Papers 1403.1183, arXiv.org.
    14. Li, Yingqiu & Zhou, Xiaowen & Zhu, Na, 2015. "Two-sided discounted potential measures for spectrally negative Lévy processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 67-76.
    15. Ola Mahmoud, 2015. "The Temporal Dimension of Risk," Papers 1501.01573, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2016.
    16. Zbigniew Palmowski & Joanna Tumilewicz, 2017. "Pricing insurance drawdown-type contracts with underlying L\'evy assets," Papers 1701.01891, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2017.
    17. Kouritzin, Michael A. & MacKay, Anne, 2018. "VIX-linked fees for GMWBs via explicit solution simulation methods," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1-17.
    18. Damiano Rossello & Silvestro Lo Cascio, 2021. "A refined measure of conditional maximum drawdown," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 301-321, December.
    19. Mohamed Amine Lkabous, 2019. "Poissonian occupation times of spectrally negative L\'evy processes with applications," Papers 1907.09990, arXiv.org.
    20. Zhang, Gongqiu & Li, Lingfei, 2023. "A general method for analysis and valuation of drawdown risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:126:y:2026:i:c:s0167668725001477. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.