IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v107y2022icp123-139.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Basis risk management and randomly scaled uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Mercè Claramunt, M.
  • Lefèvre, Claude
  • Loisel, Stéphane
  • Montesinos, Pierre

Abstract

This paper proposes a method for quantifying the basis risk present in index-based insurance. It applies when the inherent uncertainty is represented by a randomly scaled variable. This turns out to be a reasonable assumption in a number of practical situations. Several properties of such a variable are first briefly studied. Their order in the s-convex sense is discussed and the associated extreme distributions are obtained to generate the worst situations. In each scenario, the basis risk consequences are then assessed using a penalty function that takes into account the risk tolerances of the protection buyer. Basis risk limits for a fixed budget can also be set. The proposed approach is illustrated by a few simple examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Mercè Claramunt, M. & Lefèvre, Claude & Loisel, Stéphane & Montesinos, Pierre, 2022. "Basis risk management and randomly scaled uncertainty," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 123-139.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:107:y:2022:i:c:p:123-139
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2022.08.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016766872200097X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2022.08.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cline, D. B. H. & Samorodnitsky, G., 1994. "Subexponentiality of the product of independent random variables," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-98, January.
    2. Franke, Guenter & Schlesinger, Harris & Stapleton, Richard C., 2011. "Risk taking with additive and multiplicative background risks," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1547-1568, July.
    3. Hélène Cossette & Thierry Duchesne & Étienne Marceau, 2003. "Modeling Catastrophes and their Impact on Insurance Portfolios," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22.
    4. Enkelejd Hashorva & Lanpeng Ji, 2014. "Random Shifting and Scaling of Insurance Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-12, July.
    5. Ilia Tsetlin & Robert L. Winkler, 2005. "Risky Choices and Correlated Background Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(9), pages 1336-1345, September.
    6. Alexandru V. Asimit & Raluca Vernic & Ricardas Zitikis, 2016. "Background Risk Models and Stepwise Portfolio Construction," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 805-827, September.
    7. De Vylder, F., 1982. "Best upper bounds for integrals with respect to measures allowed to vary under conical and integral constraints," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 109-130, April.
    8. Côté, Marie-Pier & Genest, Christian, 2019. "Dependence in a background risk model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 28-46.
    9. Lefevre, Claude & Utev, Sergey, 2001. "Comparison of individual risk models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 21-30, February.
    10. Kaas, R. & Goovaerts, M. J., 1986. "Best bounds for positive distributions with fixed moments," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 87-92, January.
    11. Courtois, Cindy & Denuit, Michel, 2008. "Convex bounds on multiplicative processes, with applications to pricing in incomplete markets," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-100, February.
    12. Furman, Edward & Kye, Yisub & Su, Jianxi, 2021. "Multiplicative background risk models: Setting a course for the idiosyncratic risk factors distributed phase-type," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 153-167.
    13. Günter Franke & Harris Schlesinger & Richard C. Stapleton, 2006. "Multiplicative Background Risk," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 146-153, January.
    14. Enkelejd Hashorva & Anthony G. Pakes & Qihe Tang, 2010. "Asymptotics of Random Contractions," Papers 1008.0126, arXiv.org.
    15. Vroege, Willemijn & Dalhaus, Tobias & Finger, Robert, 2019. "Index insurances for grasslands – A review for Europe and North-America," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 101-111.
    16. Antoine Leblois & Philippe Quirion, 2013. "Agricultural insurances based on meteorological indices: realizations, methods and research challenges," Post-Print hal-00656778, HAL.
    17. Hashorva, Enkelejd & Pakes, Anthony G. & Tang, Qihe, 2010. "Asymptotics of random contractions," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 405-414, December.
    18. Denuit, Michel & Vylder, Etienne De & Lefevre, Claude, 1999. "Extremal generators and extremal distributions for the continuous s-convex stochastic orderings," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 201-217, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claude Lefèvre & Stéphane Loisel & Pierre Montesinos, 2020. "Bounding basis risk using s-convex orders on Beta-unimodal distributions," Working Papers hal-02611208, HAL.
    2. Cheung, Eric C.K. & Peralta, Oscar & Woo, Jae-Kyung, 2022. "Multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures and their applications in risk theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 364-389.
    3. Eric C. K. Cheung & Oscar Peralta & Jae-Kyung Woo, 2021. "Multivariate matrix-exponential affine mixtures and their applications in risk theory," Papers 2201.11122, arXiv.org.
    4. Martín Egozcue & Jiang Wu & Ričardas Zitikis, 2017. "Optimal two-stage pricing strategies from the seller’s perspective under the uncertainty of buyer’s decisions," Journal of Statistical Distributions and Applications, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, December.
    5. Alexandru V. Asimit & Raluca Vernic & Ricardas Zitikis, 2016. "Background Risk Models and Stepwise Portfolio Construction," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 805-827, September.
    6. Yang, Yingying & Hu, Shuhe & Wu, Tao, 2011. "The tail probability of the product of dependent random variables from max-domains of attraction," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(12), pages 1876-1882.
    7. Yang, Yang & Hashorva, Enkelejd, 2013. "Extremes and products of multivariate AC-product risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 312-319.
    8. Huang, Hung-Hsi & Wang, Ching-Ping, 2013. "Portfolio selection and portfolio frontier with background risk," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 177-196.
    9. Nicos Scordis, 2011. "The Morality of Risk Modeling," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 103(1), pages 7-16, April.
    10. Dionne, Georges & Li, Jingyuan, 2014. "Comparative Ross risk aversion in the presence of mean dependent risks," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 128-135.
    11. Chen, Yiqing & Liu, Jiajun & Liu, Fei, 2015. "Ruin with insurance and financial risks following the least risky FGM dependence structure," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 98-106.
    12. Guo, Xu & Wong, Wing-Keung & Zhu, Lixing, 2013. "An analysis of portfolio selection with multiplicative background risk," MPRA Paper 51331, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Li, Jingyuan & Liu, Dongri & Wang, Jianli, 2016. "Risk aversion with two risks: A theoretical extension," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 100-105.
    14. N. Balakrishnan & A. Stepanov, 2014. "On the Use of Bivariate Mellin Transform in Bivariate Random Scaling and Some Applications," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 235-244, March.
    15. Jing Liu & Huan Zhang, 2017. "Asymptotic Estimates for the One-Year Ruin Probability under Risky Investments," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-11, May.
    16. Qu, Zhihui & Chen, Yu, 2013. "Approximations of the tail probability of the product of dependent extremal random variables and applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 169-178.
    17. Jiang Wu & Ricardas Zitikis, 2016. "Should we opt for the Black Friday discounted price or wait until the Boxing Day?," Papers 1612.05855, arXiv.org.
    18. Hansjörg Albrecher & José Carlos Araujo-Acuna, 2022. "On The Randomized Schmitter Problem," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 515-535, June.
    19. Tang, Qihe & Yang, Fan, 2012. "On the Haezendonck–Goovaerts risk measure for extreme risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 217-227.
    20. Denuit, Michel & Vylder, Etienne De & Lefevre, Claude, 1999. "Extremal generators and extremal distributions for the continuous s-convex stochastic orderings," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 201-217, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Basis risk; Index-based insurance; Randomly scaled variables; s-convex orders; Penalty functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:107:y:2022:i:c:p:123-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.