“Hands off our forests!” - The impact of the authoritarian rule on polish forest policy in the context of the European Green Deal

In recent years, numerous initiatives and instruments from the European Union have aimed to address climate change. As a result, forest policies of member states—formally outside the EU's direct competencies—have come under increasing pressure from the EU. Member states' responses have varied, largely influenced by their unique socio-economic and political contexts regarding forest policies. This paper examines the impact of an authoritarian shift in Poland, observed from 2015 to 2023, on the responsiveness of domestic forest policy and key policy actors to European policy stimuli. To this end, we collected and analysed data on forest policy development through desk research and 30 semi-structured interviews with representatives of key stakeholder groups. We interpreted the results using the Advocacy Coalition Framework. Our findings suggest that the authoritarian context in Poland initially strengthened eurosceptic attitudes among dominant actors in the forest policy subsystem, hindering the implementation of new measures aimed at addressing climate change and biodiversity decline. However, autocratic policymaking gradually weakened the coherence of the dominant forest coalition, compromised the social legitimacy of foresters, and positioned forest-related issues within a clear party-political framework. Consequently, the major external shock to the subsystem—the 2023 general elections and the subsequent change in government—opened a window of opportunity for significant forest policy changes aligned with the European Green Deal.