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Macroeconomic uncertainty and systemic risk in non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China

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  • Li, Jianhui
  • Wang, Mancang
  • Liu, Xin

Abstract

Utilizing quarterly data from 4790 Chinese A-share non-financial listed firms from 2006 to 2023, this study empirically examines the impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on firm systemic risk. The findings reveal that MU significantly increases systemic risk, an effect that is particularly pronounced and primarily driven by high-growth firms (Tobin's Q is greater than 1). Mechanism analysis indicates that financing constraints amplify the risk-enhancing effect of MU, whereas digital transformation effectively mitigates it, with this mitigating effect following an inverted U-shaped pattern. This research provides new evidence for understanding the micro-level transmission of macroeconomic fluctuations and its boundary conditions, highlighting the role of firm heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Jianhui & Wang, Mancang & Liu, Xin, 2026. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and systemic risk in non-financial enterprises: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:92:y:2026:i:c:s1544612326001467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2026.109615
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