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Exploring spatio-temporal heterogeneity in sustainable development drivers using explainable AI: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Pan, Qian
  • Gao, Shanxue
  • Lin, Shimin
  • Liu, Chao

Abstract

To achieve sustainable development, regions need to integrate their local characteristics into collaborative strategies. This study investigates the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of sustainable development drivers across 31 provinces in China from 2007 to 2021 using an Explainable AI approach. GeoShapley is applied to the random forest model to interpret the contribution of SDGs drivers. Sustainable development exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with green finance, while displays a positive monotonic relation with green technology innovation. It is recommended to optimize green finance allocation and actively promote green technological innovation nationwide. Three temporal mechanisms are provided for different regions to achieve sustainable outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pan, Qian & Gao, Shanxue & Lin, Shimin & Liu, Chao, 2026. "Exploring spatio-temporal heterogeneity in sustainable development drivers using explainable AI: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:87:y:2026:i:c:s1544612325022718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.109018
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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