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Some properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations

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  • Iwaki, Hideki
  • Osaki, Yusuke

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations. We show that investors who follow optimal expectations underweigh small probabilities and overweigh large probabilities in a simple binary economy. This indicates that the subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations are incompatible with experimentally observed results under the rank dependent probability assumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwaki, Hideki & Osaki, Yusuke, 2010. "Some properties of subjective probabilities induced by optimal expectations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 98-102, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:7:y:2010:i:2:p:98-102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker & Christian Gollier, 2007. "Optimal Beliefs, Asset Prices, and the Preference for Skewed Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 159-165, May.
    2. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Jonathan A. Parker, 2005. "Optimal Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1092-1118, September.
    3. Gollier, Christian, 2005. "Optimal Illusions and Decisions under Risk," IDEI Working Papers 340, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse.
    4. Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
    5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    6. Nicholas Barberis & Ming Huang, 2008. "Stocks as Lotteries: The Implications of Probability Weighting for Security Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2066-2100, December.
    7. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
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