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Let’s switch again! Testing for speculative oil price bubbles based on rotated market expectations

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  • Kruse-Becher, Robinson

Abstract

Econometric tests for bubbles suffer from mis-specified and mis-measured fundamentals. However, such tests can be carried out without using any unobservable fundamental, but relying on financial market expectations instead. We revisit the case of oil price bubbles and investigate the role of expectations. While we still find no evidence for speculative bubbles when using rotated expectations, striking differences arise regarding implied risk premia. Using raw market expectations leads to explosive risk premia which are implausible, both theoretically and empirically, while the opposite is found for rotated market expectations.

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  • Kruse-Becher, Robinson, 2025. "Let’s switch again! Testing for speculative oil price bubbles based on rotated market expectations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s1544612325003794
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107116
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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