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Predicting stock price crash risk in China: A modified graph WaveNet model

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  • Jing, Zhongbo
  • Li, Qin
  • Zhao, Hongyi
  • Zhao, Yang

Abstract

The stock price of a firm is dynamically influenced by its own factors as well as those of its peers. In this study, we introduce a Graph Attention Network (GAT) integrated with WaveNet architecture—termed the GAT-WaveNet model—to capture both time-series and spatial dependencies for forecasting the stock price crash risk of Chinese listed firms from 2012 to 2023. Utilizing node-rolling techniques to prevent overfitting, our results show that the GAT-WaveNet model significantly outperforms traditional machine learning models in prediction accuracy. Moreover, investment portfolios leveraging the GAT-WaveNet model substantially exceed the cumulative returns of those based on other models.

Suggested Citation

  • Jing, Zhongbo & Li, Qin & Zhao, Hongyi & Zhao, Yang, 2024. "Predicting stock price crash risk in China: A modified graph WaveNet model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:64:y:2024:i:c:s1544612324004987
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105468
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock price crash risk; Graph neural networks; Graph attention networks; Machine learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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