IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v58y2023ipcs1544612323009066.html

Wheat as a hedge and safe haven for equity investors during the Russia–Ukraine war

Author

Listed:
  • Ghorbali, Bassem
  • Kaabia, Olfa
  • Naoui, Kamel
  • Urom, Christian
  • Slimane, Ikrame Ben

Abstract

This study assesses the safe haven and hedge profiles of wheat against equity markets during the Russia–Ukraine war using both DCC-GARCH and wavelet techniques. We found significant decrease in dynamic conditional correlations between wheat and the chosen indexes, suggesting that investors may reduce portfolio risks using wheat. Moreover, we demonstrate that wheat possesses weak safe-haven potential for equity indexes during the war, except for the FTSE/MIB while it provides hedging benefits for DAX30, S&P500 and FTSE100. These results are confirmed by our further analysis using wavelet coherency, which shows that wheat provides safe haven for these assets (except FTSE/MIB), especially for medium-term investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghorbali, Bassem & Kaabia, Olfa & Naoui, Kamel & Urom, Christian & Slimane, Ikrame Ben, 2023. "Wheat as a hedge and safe haven for equity investors during the Russia–Ukraine war," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PC).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323009066
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104534
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612323009066
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2023.104534?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Saâdaoui, Foued & Ben Jabeur, Sami & Goodell, John W., 2022. "Causality of geopolitical risk on food prices: Considering the Russo–Ukrainian conflict," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    2. Adekoya, Oluwasegun B. & Asl, Mahdi Ghaemi & Oliyide, Johnson A. & Izadi, Parviz, 2023. "Multifractality and cross-correlation between the crude oil and the European and non-European stock markets during the Russia-Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    4. Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and the safe haven property of Bitcoin," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 370-375.
    5. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    6. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    7. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Lucey, Brian M. & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Is gold a hedge or a safe-haven asset in the COVID–19 crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Ben Khelifa, Soumaya & Guesmi, Khaled & Urom, Christian, 2021. "Exploring the relationship between cryptocurrencies and hedge funds during COVID-19 crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Boungou, Whelsy & Yatié, Alhonita, 2022. "The impact of the Ukraine–Russia war on world stock market returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    10. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    11. Urom, Christian & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled & Chevallier, Julien, 2020. "Quantile spillovers and dependence between Bitcoin, equities and strategic commodities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-258.
    12. Guesmi, Khaled & Saadi, Samir & Abid, Ilyes & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Portfolio diversification with virtual currency: Evidence from bitcoin," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 431-437.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dejan Živkov & Sanja Lončar, 2026. "International diversification with parametric value-at-risk portfolios beyond normality," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 28(2), pages 1-22, May.
    2. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Fulber, Ives Cezar & Froner, Matheus B., 2025. "The nexus between carbon, energy and agrifood—A contemporaneous and lagged spillover analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    3. Yousfi, Mohamed & Farhani, Ramzi & Bouzgarrou, Houssam, 2024. "From the pandemic to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Dynamic behavior of connectedness between financial markets and implications for portfolio management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1178-1197.
    4. Chen, Yaling & Jiang, Qinnan & Dai, Zhifeng & Liu, Yinpeng, 2025. "The impact of climate policy uncertainty on the correlations between green bond and green stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    5. Chi‐Wei Su & Yu‐Mei Ding & Kai‐Hua Wang & Xiao‐Qing Wang, 2026. "Testing the Safe‐Haven Properties of Green Bonds, Gold, and Bitcoin for Traditional Bonds: A Wavelet Quantile Correlation Approach," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(1), pages 16-29, March.
    6. Xuewei Zhou & Zisheng Ouyang & Rangan Gupta & Qiang Ji, 2026. "Time-varying multilayer networks analysis of frequency connectedness in commodity futures markets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 1-41, February.
    7. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Abdullah, Mohammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Wali Ullah, G M, 2024. "Asymmetric dynamics between geopolitical conflict sentiment and cryptomarkets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Wael Dammak & Halilibrahim Gökgöz & Ahmed Jeribi, 2025. "Analysis of Gold, Bitcoin, and Gold-Backed Cryptocurrencies as Safe Havens during Global Crises: A Focus on Artificial Intelligence Companies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 66(4), pages 2843-2872, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk connectedness and optimal investment strategies between international oil and commodity futures markets: Insights from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    2. Ustaoglu, Erkan, 2023. "Diversification, hedge, and safe-haven properties of gold and bitcoin with portfolio implications during the Russia–Ukraine war," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Andreas Renard Widarto & Harjum Muharam & Sugeng Wahyudi & Irene Rini Demi Pangestuti, 2022. "ASEAN-5 and Crypto Hedge Fund: Dynamic Portfolio Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, April.
    4. Yousfi, Mohamed & Farhani, Ramzi & Bouzgarrou, Houssam, 2024. "From the pandemic to the Russia–Ukraine crisis: Dynamic behavior of connectedness between financial markets and implications for portfolio management," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1178-1197.
    5. Azimli, Asil, 2024. "Is gold a safe haven for the U.S. dollar during extreme conditions?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    6. Ustaoglu, Erkan, 2022. "Safe-haven properties and portfolio applications of cryptocurrencies: Evidence from the emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    7. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Boubaker, Sabri & Chaibi, Anis & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "In search of hedges and safe havens during the COVID─19 pandemic: Gold versus Bitcoin, oil, and oil uncertainty," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 318-332.
    8. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Boubaker, Sabri & Goodell, John W., 2023. "Did the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank catalyze financial contagion?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    9. Samia Nasreen & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Seong-Min Yoon, 2021. "Dynamic Connectedness and Portfolio Diversification during the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Pandemic: Evidence from the Cryptocurrency Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-14, July.
    10. Yang, Cai & Wang, Xinyi & Gao, Wang, 2022. "Is Bitcoin a better hedging and safe-haven investment than traditional assets against currencies? Evidence from the time-frequency domain approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Cui, Jinxin & Alshater, Muneer M. & Mensi, Walid, 2023. "Higher-order moment risk spillovers and optimal portfolio strategies in global oil markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PA).
    12. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Goodell, John W., 2024. "Volatility spillovers and hedging strategies between impact investing and agricultural commodities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Bouri, Elie, 2020. "Co-movement across european stock and real estate markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 189-208.
    15. Hicham Ouakil & Salah Eddine Kartobi & Zakaria Salhi & Zineb Elhachimi, 2026. "Hedging MENA stock markets with gold, oil, and cryptocurrencies: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine war periods," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 16(1), pages 271-309, March.
    16. N.S. Al-Nassar & Sabri Boubaker & A. Chaibi & B. Makram, 2023. "In Search of Hedges and Safe Havens during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Gold versus Bitcoin, Oil, and Oil Uncertainty," Post-Print hal-04435437, HAL.
    17. Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Vasiliou & Anastasios Magoutas & Drosos Koutsokostas, 2025. "The dynamic connectedness between private equities and other high-demand financial assets: A portfolio hedging strategy during COVID-19," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 50(1), pages 200-219, February.
    18. Yu, Mengxia & Xu, Ke & Zheng, Xinwei, 2025. "Reprint of: Mimicking crypto portfolios in sustainable investment," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 57(1).
    19. Wang, Peijin & Zhang, Hongwei & Yang, Cai & Guo, Yaoqi, 2021. "Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness and hedging performance in global stock markets: Bitcoin versus conventional hedges," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    20. Tabash, Mosab I. & Sheikh, Umaid A. & Shawkat, Hammoudeh & Sang Hoon, Kang, 2026. "From collapse to contagion: The Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) default and its ripple effects across global islamic and conventional financial sectors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pc:s1544612323009066. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.