IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v76y2021ics1057521921001150.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Risk-taking and performance of government bond mutual funds

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Donghyun
  • Li, Chengcheng
  • Wang, Xiaoqiong

Abstract

This paper investigates the risk exposures of government bond mutual funds and how risk-taking behavior affects fund performance. Government bond mutual funds often outperform their respective benchmark bond indexes before but not after adjusting for bond market risk factors. We show that the risk-taking behavior of fund managers helps to explain the different performances of government bond funds with and without controlling for the risk factors. Our results suggest that risk-taking leads to higher returns relative to benchmarks in normal risk periods but lower returns in high risk periods, suggesting that fund managers consistently take risky bets in fund management. We further show that the risk-taking of government bond funds is persistent and that investors typically have no ability to differentiate between the skill and risk components of fund performance. These findings suggest why fund managers have incentives to take consistently risky positions.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Donghyun & Li, Chengcheng & Wang, Xiaoqiong, 2021. "Risk-taking and performance of government bond mutual funds," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101780
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521921001150
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101780?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
    2. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
    3. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2008. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2379-2416, November.
    4. Berk, Jonathan B. & van Binsbergen, Jules H., 2016. "Assessing asset pricing models using revealed preference," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 1-23.
    5. Jonathan Ingersoll & Ivo Welch, 2007. "Portfolio Performance Manipulation and Manipulation-proof Performance Measures," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1503-1546, 2007 17.
    6. Jennifer Lynch Koski & Jeffrey Pontiff, 1999. "How Are Derivatives Used? Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(2), pages 791-816, April.
    7. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1995. "Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-1256, September.
    8. Wayne Ferson & Tyler R. Henry & Darren J. Kisgen, 2006. "Evaluating Government Bond Fund Performance with Stochastic Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 423-455.
    9. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott, 2012. "The Performance of Corporate Bond Mutual Funds: Evidence Based on Security-Level Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 159-178, February.
    10. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    11. Busse, Jeffrey A., 2001. "Another Look at Mutual Fund Tournaments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(1), pages 53-73, March.
    12. Blake, Christopher R & Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J, 1993. "The Performance of Bond Mutual Funds," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 370-403, July.
    13. Brad M. Barber & Xing Huang & Terrance Odean, 2016. "Which Factors Matter to Investors? Evidence from Mutual Fund Flows," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(10), pages 2600-2642.
    14. Goldstein, Itay & Jiang, Hao & Ng, David T., 2017. "Investor flows and fragility in corporate bond funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 592-613.
    15. Yong Chen & Nan Qin, 2017. "The Behavior of Investor Flows in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1365-1384, May.
    16. Aragon, George O. & Li, Lei & Qian, Jun ‘QJ’, 2019. "The use of credit default swaps by bond mutual funds: Liquidity provision and counterparty risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 168-185.
    17. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Keswani, Aneel & Miguel, Antonio F. & Ramos, Sofia B., 2012. "The flow-performance relationship around the world," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1759-1780.
    18. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    19. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2011. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2575-2616.
    20. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 523-557, December.
    21. Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2007. "Participation Costs and the Sensitivity of Fund Flows to Past Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1273-1311, June.
    22. Linlin Ma & Yuehua Tang & Juan‐Pedro Gómez, 2019. "Portfolio Manager Compensation in the U.S. Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 587-638, April.
    23. Chen, Yong & Ferson, Wayne & Peters, Helen, 2010. "Measuring the timing ability and performance of bond mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 72-89, October.
    24. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. "Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yong Chen & Nan Qin, 2017. "The Behavior of Investor Flows in Corporate Bond Mutual Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(5), pages 1365-1384, May.
    2. Ferson, Wayne E., 2013. "Investment Performance: A Review and Synthesis," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 969-1010, Elsevier.
    3. Linlin Ma & Yuehua Tang, 2019. "Portfolio Manager Ownership and Mutual Fund Risk Taking," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(12), pages 5518-5534, December.
    4. Qin, Nan & Wang, Ying, 2021. "Does portfolio concentration affect performance? Evidence from corporate bond mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    5. Dang, Thuy Duong & Hollstein, Fabian & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2022. "How do corporate bond investors measure performance? Evidence from mutual fund flows," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    6. Fulkerson, Jon A. & Riley, Timothy B., 2019. "Portfolio concentration and mutual fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Anthony Tay & Jacques Olivier, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Working Papers 10-2008, Singapore Management University, School of Economics, revised Jun 2008.
    8. Moneta, Fabio, 2015. "Measuring bond mutual fund performance with portfolio characteristics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 223-242.
    9. Clemens Sialm & T. Mandy Tham, 2016. "Spillover Effects in Mutual Fund Companies," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(5), pages 1472-1486, May.
    10. Jannic Cutura & Gianpaolo Parise & Andreas Schrimpf, 2020. "Debt De-risking," BIS Working Papers 868, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Anthony Tay, 2008. "Time-Varying Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Finance Working Papers 22484, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Yee Loon, 2011. "Model uncertainty, performance persistence and flows," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 153-205, February.
    13. Park, Keun Woo & Han, Min Yeon & Oh, Ji Yeol Jimmy, 2020. "Beta or duration? Risk-taking by balanced mutual funds in Korea✰," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    14. Cuthbertson, Keith & Nitzsche, Dirk & O'Sullivan, Niall, 2016. "A review of behavioural and management effects in mutual fund performance," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 162-176.
    15. Servaes, Henri & Sigurdsson, Kari, 2022. "The Costs and Benefits of Performance Fees in Mutual Funds," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    16. Li, C. Wei & Tiwari, Ashish & Tong, Lin, 2022. "Mutual fund tournaments and fund Active Share," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Hanjiang Zhang, 2011. "Risk Shifting and Mutual Fund Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(8), pages 2575-2616.
    18. Kempf, Alexander & Ruenzi, Stefan & Thiele, Tanja, 2009. "Employment risk, compensation incentives, and managerial risk taking: Evidence from the mutual fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 92-108, April.
    19. Mazur, Mieszko & Salganik-Shoshan, Galla & Zagonov, Maxim, 2017. "Comparing performance sensitivity of retail and institutional mutual funds’ investment flows," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 66-73.
    20. C. Wei Li & Ashish Tiwari & Lin Tong, 2017. "Investment Decisions Under Ambiguity: Evidence from Mutual Fund Investor Behavior," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(8), pages 2509-2528, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government bond funds; Incentives; Risk-taking; Performance; Fund flows;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001150. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.