IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v86y2015icp276-291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hybrid methodologies for electricity load forecasting: Entropy-based feature selection with machine learning and soft computing techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Jurado, Sergio
  • Nebot, Àngela
  • Mugica, Fransisco
  • Avellana, Narcís

Abstract

Scientific community is currently doing a great effort of research in the area of Smart Grids because energy production, distribution, and consumption play a critical role in the sustainability of the planet. The main challenge lies in intelligently integrating the actions of all users connected to the grid. In this context, electricity load forecasting methodologies is a key component for demand-side management. This research compares the accuracy of different Machine Learning methodologies for the hourly energy forecasting in buildings. The main goal of this work is to demonstrate the performance of these models and their scalability for different consumption profiles. We propose a hybrid methodology that combines feature selection based on entropies with soft computing and machine learning approaches, i.e. Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning, Random Forest and Neural Networks. They are also compared with a traditional statistical technique ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average). In addition, in contrast to the general approaches where offline modelling takes considerable time, the approaches discussed in this work generate fast and reliable models, with low computational costs. These approaches could be embedded, for instance, in a second generation of smart meters, where they could generate on-site electricity forecasting of the next hours, or even trade the excess of energy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jurado, Sergio & Nebot, Àngela & Mugica, Fransisco & Avellana, Narcís, 2015. "Hybrid methodologies for electricity load forecasting: Entropy-based feature selection with machine learning and soft computing techniques," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 276-291.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:276-291
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.04.039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544215004934
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2015.04.039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2007. "Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1761-1768.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006. "Another look at measures of forecast accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
    3. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    4. Aydinalp, Merih & Ismet Ugursal, V. & Fung, Alan S., 2002. "Modeling of the appliance, lighting, and space-cooling energy consumptions in the residential sector using neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-110, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Buratti, C. & Barbanera, M. & Palladino, D., 2014. "An original tool for checking energy performance and certification of buildings by means of Artificial Neural Networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 125-132.
    2. Serinaldi, Francesco, 2011. "Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1216-1226.
    3. Rafal Weron & Florian Ziel, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/18/08, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Chang, Chih-Hao & Chen, Zih-Bing & Huang, Shih-Feng, 2022. "Forecasting of high-resolution electricity consumption with stochastic climatic covariates via a functional time series approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    6. Michael Kostmann & Wolfgang K. Härdle, 2019. "Forecasting in Blockchain-Based Local Energy Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-27, July.
    7. Kwok Wai Mui & Ling Tim Wong & Manoj Kumar Satheesan & Anjana Balachandran, 2021. "A Hybrid Simulation Model to Predict the Cooling Energy Consumption for Residential Housing in Hong Kong," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-18, August.
    8. Arkadiusz Jędrzejewski & Grzegorz Marcjasz & Rafał Weron, 2021. "Importance of the Long-Term Seasonal Component in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting Revisited: Parameter-Rich Models Estimated via the LASSO," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, June.
    9. Roman Rodriguez-Aguilar & Jose Antonio Marmolejo-Saucedo & Brenda Retana-Blanco, 2019. "Prices of Mexican Wholesale Electricity Market: An Application of Alpha-Stable Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Beltrán, Sergio & Castro, Alain & Irizar, Ion & Naveran, Gorka & Yeregui, Imanol, 2022. "Framework for collaborative intelligence in forecasting day-ahead electricity price," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    11. Suganthi, L. & Samuel, Anand A., 2012. "Energy models for demand forecasting—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1223-1240.
    12. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
    13. Kadir Özen & Dilem Yıldırım, 2021. "Application of Bagging in Day-Ahead Electricity Price Forecasting and Factor Augmentation," ERC Working Papers 2101, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2021.
    14. Shaker Zabada & Isam Shahrour, 2017. "Analysis of Heating Expenses in a Large Social Housing Stock Using Artificial Neural Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-8, December.
    15. Hong, Tao & Fan, Shu, 2016. "Probabilistic electric load forecasting: A tutorial review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 914-938.
    16. repec:prg:jnlcfu:v:2022:y:2022:i:1:id:572 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Lavička, Hynek & Kracík, Jiří, 2020. "Fluctuation analysis of electric power loads in Europe: Correlation multifractality vs. Distribution function multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 545(C).
    18. Niematallah Elamin & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2016. "A Quantile Regression Model for Electricity Peak Demand Forecasting: An Approach to Avoiding Power Blackouts," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 16-22, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    19. Voyant, Cyril & Motte, Fabrice & Notton, Gilles & Fouilloy, Alexis & Nivet, Marie-Laure & Duchaud, Jean-Laurent, 2018. "Prediction intervals for global solar irradiation forecasting using regression trees methods," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 332-340.
    20. Angelica Gianfreda & Francesco Ravazzolo & Luca Rossini, 2023. "Large Time‐Varying Volatility Models for Hourly Electricity Prices," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(3), pages 545-573, June.
    21. Joanna Janczura & Aleksander Weron, 2008. "Modelling energy forward prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/08/03, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:276-291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.