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Economic challenges for the future relevance of biofuels in transport in EU countries

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  • Ajanovic, A.
  • Haas, R.

Abstract

The discussion on the promotion of biofuels is ambiguous: on the one hand benefits like reduction of greenhouse gas emissions and increase of energy supply security are expected, on the other hand low effectiveness with respect to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and high costs are being criticized. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the market prospects of biofuels for transport in the EU in a dynamic framework till 2030. The major results of this analysis are: (i) Under current policy conditions – mainly exemption of excise taxes – the economic prospects of 1st generation biofuels in Europe are rather promising; the major problems of 1st generation biofuels are lack of available land for feedstocks and the modest ecological performance; (ii) Large expectations are currently put into advanced 2nd generation biofuels production from lignocellulosic materials. With respect to the future costs development of 2nd generation biofuels, currently it can only be stated that in a favourable case by 2030 they will be close to the costs of 1st generation biofuels. However, because of the increasing prices for fossil gasoline and diesel in all international scenarios – given remaining tax exemptions – biofuels will become competitive already in the next few years.

Suggested Citation

  • Ajanovic, A. & Haas, R., 2010. "Economic challenges for the future relevance of biofuels in transport in EU countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 3340-3348.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:35:y:2010:i:8:p:3340-3348
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2010.04.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Dutta, Kasturi & Daverey, Achlesh & Lin, Jih-Gaw, 2014. "Evolution retrospective for alternative fuels: First to fourth generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 114-122.
    2. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2014. "On the future prospects and limits of biofuels in Brazil, the US and EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 730-737.
    3. Guerrero-Lemus, Ricardo & Marrero, Gustavo A. & Puch, Luis A., 2012. "Costs for conventional and renewable fuels and electricity in the worldwide transport sector: A mean–variance portfolio approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 178-188.
    4. Ge, Jianping & Lei, Yalin & Tokunaga, Suminori, 2014. "Non-grain fuel ethanol expansion and its effects on food security: A computable general equilibrium analysis for China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 346-356.
    5. Amela Ajanovic & Gerfried Jungmeier & Martin Beermann & Reinhard Haas, 2012. "The Long-Term Prospects of Biofuels in the EU-15 Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 5(8), pages 1-16, August.
    6. Bohl, Thomas & Tian, Guohong & Smallbone, Andrew & Roskilly, Anthony P., 2017. "Macroscopic spray characteristics of next-generation bio-derived diesel fuels in comparison to mineral diesel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 186(P3), pages 562-573.
    7. Schneider, T. & Graeff-Hönninger, S. & French, W.T. & Hernandez, R. & Merkt, N. & Claupein, W. & Hetrick, M. & Pham, P., 2013. "Lipid and carotenoid production by oleaginous red yeast Rhodotorula glutinis cultivated on brewery effluents," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 34-43.
    8. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2017. "The impact of energy policies in scenarios on GHG emission reduction in passenger car mobility in the EU-15," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1088-1096.
    9. Armando Caldeira-Pires & Sandra Maria Da Luz & Silvia Palma-Rojas & Thiago Oliveira Rodrigues & Vanessa Chaves Silverio & Frederico Vilela & Paulo Cesar Barbosa & Ana Maria Alves, 2013. "Sustainability of the Biorefinery Industry for Fuel Production," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-22, January.
    10. Ajanovic, Amela, 2013. "Renewable fuels – A comparative assessment from economic, energetic and ecological point-of-view up to 2050 in EU-countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 733-738.
    11. Malça, João & Freire, Fausto, 2012. "Addressing land use change and uncertainty in the life-cycle assessment of wheat-based bioethanol," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 519-527.
    12. Baker, Erin & Keisler, Jeffrey M., 2011. "Cellulosic biofuels: Expert views on prospects for advancement," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 595-605.
    13. Raslavičius, Laurencas & Semenov, Vladimir G. & Chernova, Nadezhda I. & Keršys, Artūras & Kopeyka, Aleksandr K., 2014. "Producing transportation fuels from algae: In search of synergy," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 133-142.
    14. Kamal Soundararajan & Elspeth Thomson, 2013. "Asia and European transport biofuels stalled at the same place?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 247-263, September.
    15. Raslavičius, Laurencas & Felneris, Mantas & Pukalskas, Saugirdas & Rimkus, Alfredas & Melaika, Mindaugas, 2019. "Evaluation of P. moriformis oil and its blends with diesel fuel as promising contributors to transportation energy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    16. Fazeni, Karin & Lindorfer, Johannes & Prammer, Heinz, 2014. "Methodological advancements in Life Cycle Process Design: A preliminary outlook," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 66-77.
    17. Vitezslav Pisa & Jan Bruha & Vitezslav Pisa, 2011. "Dynamics of the Commodity Prices and Quantities: An Analysis using a Dynamic Multiregional CGE Model," EcoMod2011 2889, EcoMod.
    18. Lakner, Zoltan & Baker, Gregory A., 2014. "Struggling with Uncertainty: The State of Global Agri-Food Sector in 2030," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1-36, November.
    19. Constantin ANGHELACHE & Madalina-Gabriela ANGHEL & Radu Titus MARINESCU & Aurelian DIACONU, 2017. "Analysis Of The Evolution Transport Perspective In The European Union States Members," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 65(8), pages 102-111, August.
    20. E, Jiaqiang & Pham, Minhhieu & Zhao, D. & Deng, Yuanwang & Le, DucHieu & Zuo, Wei & Zhu, Hao & Liu, Teng & Peng, Qingguo & Zhang, Zhiqing, 2017. "Effect of different technologies on combustion and emissions of the diesel engine fueled with biodiesel: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 620-647.
    21. Azad, A.K. & Rasul, M.G. & Khan, M.M.K. & Sharma, Subhash C. & Mofijur, M. & Bhuiya, M.M.K., 2016. "Prospects, feedstocks and challenges of biodiesel production from beauty leaf oil and castor oil: A nonedible oil sources in Australia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 302-318.
    22. Timilsina, Govinda R. & Shrestha, Ashish, 2011. "How much hope should we have for biofuels?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2055-2069.
    23. Hugues, Paul & Assoumou, Edi & Maizi, Nadia, 2016. "Assessing GHG mitigation and associated cost of French biofuel sector: Insights from a TIMES model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 288-300.

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