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The influencing factors and scenario simulation of embodied carbon emissions in manufacturing trade in the Yellow River Basin: An analysis from the perspective of technological effects

Author

Listed:
  • Zhao, Yiyi
  • Wu, Leying
  • Shi, Baojin
  • Zhang, Hongjuan
  • Miao, Changhong

Abstract

As a key pillar industry and major carbon emitter in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), manufacturing plays a critical role in achieving China's carbon peaking and neutrality goals. Research on how technological progress affects embodied emissions in inter-provincial trade (EEPT) remains relatively limited. This study integrated carbon emission technological effect and intermediate production technological effect, and employed the multi-regional input-output model, structural decomposition analysis, and scenario simulation to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamic effects of technological progress on the EEPT of different levels of manufacturing in the YRB. Results indicate that, firstly, the EEPT of the manufacturing in the YRB has significantly increased, featuring a distinct “higher in the east and lower in the west” spatial pattern. Medium-low-tech industries contributed over 90 % of EEPT due to outdated technologies. Secondly, the carbon emission technological effect and intermediate production technological effect significantly constrain the growth of EEPT, effectively mitigating the impact of demand growth on the driving force of carbon emissions. Finally, the scenario simulation results indicate that, compared with regional trade, national trade offers a clear advantage in carbon reduction, with high-tech industries being particularly more dependent on national trade. Between 2007 and 2017, the manufacturing industries achieved a cumulative carbon reduction of 350.4 Mt CO2 through technological progress, with medium-low-tech industries contributing as much as 96.3 % of this reduction. Forecasts show that under the technological progress scenario, compared with the baseline scenario, China's carbon emissions are expected to decrease by 36.4 %, 52.1 %, and 62.9 % in 2025, 2030, and 2035, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhao, Yiyi & Wu, Leying & Shi, Baojin & Zhang, Hongjuan & Miao, Changhong, 2026. "The influencing factors and scenario simulation of embodied carbon emissions in manufacturing trade in the Yellow River Basin: An analysis from the perspective of technological effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:342:y:2026:i:c:s0360544225052612
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139619
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