IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v339y2025ics0360544225046997.html

Carbon emission reduction scenarios in the building sector to achieve carbon neutrality in South Korea by 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Shin, Dae Hwan
  • Seo, Jihyun
  • Jung, Dong Eun
  • Kim, Sumin
  • Kim, Hyungjun
  • Kim, Jonghun
  • Jeong, Hakgeun

Abstract

Countries worldwide are moving toward carbon neutrality, with the construction sector strengthening policies to achieve this by 2050 despite the existing challenges. In this study, we developed a model scenario to achieve carbon neutrality in the building sector in Korea by 2050. The results were analyzed with respect to the energy demand and supply, considering zero-energy buildings (ZEBs), green remodeling, and building electrification according to the energy mix. We determined that carbon emissions in 2050 are projected to be 6.1 MtCO2eq, which is close to the carbon-neutrality-scenario target of 6.2 MtCO2eq for the building sector. Based on the assumptions of ZEBs, building electrification, and energy mix scenarios, the projected target can be realized if the efficiency of green remodeling exceeds 40 % after 2030. The results of this study can contribute to guiding the development of technologies and determining policy timelines for achieving carbon neutrality in buildings.

Suggested Citation

  • Shin, Dae Hwan & Seo, Jihyun & Jung, Dong Eun & Kim, Sumin & Kim, Hyungjun & Kim, Jonghun & Jeong, Hakgeun, 2025. "Carbon emission reduction scenarios in the building sector to achieve carbon neutrality in South Korea by 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:339:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225046997
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.139057
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544225046997
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2025.139057?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shivanaganna, Nethravathi & Shivamurthy, K.P. & Boddapati, Venkatesh, 2024. "Optimal strategy for transition into nearly zero energy residential buildings: A case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    2. Huo, Tengfei & Ma, Yuling & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang, 2022. "Carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector through 2060: A dynamic scenario simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(PA).
    3. Chatterjee, Souran & Molnár, Gergely & Kiss, Benedek & Topál, Daniel & Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, 2025. "Navigating the transition: Modelling the path for net-zero European building sector," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    4. Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Sugiyama, Minami & Nishimoto, Ryuya & Momonoki, Takashi, 2021. "Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    5. Joeri Rogelj & Michel den Elzen & Niklas Höhne & Taryn Fransen & Hanna Fekete & Harald Winkler & Roberto Schaeffer & Fu Sha & Keywan Riahi & Malte Meinshausen, 2016. "Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 534(7609), pages 631-639, June.
    6. Olkkonen, Ville & Hirvonen, Janne & Heljo, Juhani & Syri, Sanna, 2021. "Effectiveness of building stock sustainability measures in a low-carbon energy system: A scenario analysis for Finland until 2050," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    7. Feng, Wei & Zhang, Qianning & Ji, Hui & Wang, Ran & Zhou, Nan & Ye, Qing & Hao, Bin & Li, Yutong & Luo, Duo & Lau, Stephen Siu Yu, 2019. "A review of net zero energy buildings in hot and humid climates: Experience learned from 34 case study buildings," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Tarroja, Brian & Chiang, Felicia & AghaKouchak, Amir & Samuelsen, Scott & Raghavan, Shuba V. & Wei, Max & Sun, Kaiyu & Hong, Tianzhen, 2018. "Translating climate change and heating system electrification impacts on building energy use to future greenhouse gas emissions and electric grid capacity requirements in California," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 522-534.
    9. Neirotti, Francesco & Noussan, Michel & Simonetti, Marco, 2020. "Towards the electrification of buildings heating - Real heat pumps electricity mixes based on high resolution operational profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yang, Jingjing & Deng, Zhang & Guo, Siyue & Chen, Yixing, 2023. "Development of bottom-up model to estimate dynamic carbon emission for city-scale buildings," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Liu, Bingsheng & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei, 2022. "China’s commercial building carbon emissions toward 2060: An integrated dynamic emission assessment model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 325(C).
    3. White, Philip R. & Rhodes, Joshua D. & Wilson, Eric J.H. & Webber, Michael E., 2021. "Quantifying the impact of residential space heating electrification on the Texas electric grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    4. Zhang, Shicong & Wang, Ke & Xu, Wei & Iyer-Raniga, Usha & Athienitis, Andreas & Ge, Hua & Cho, Dong woo & Feng, Wei & Okumiya, Masaya & Yoon, Gyuyoung & Mazria, Edward & Lyu, Yanjie, 2021. "Policy recommendations for the zero energy building promotion towards carbon neutral in Asia-Pacific Region," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Pistochini, Theresa & Dichter, Mitchal & Chakraborty, Subhrajit & Dichter, Nelson & Aboud, Aref, 2022. "Greenhouse gas emission forecasts for electrification of space heating in residential homes in the US," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    6. Chen, Huadun & Du, Qianxi & Huo, Tengfei & Liu, Peiran & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2023. "Spatiotemporal patterns and driving mechanism of carbon emissions in China's urban residential building sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    7. Wang, Bingzheng & Lu, Xiaofei & Zhang, Cancan & Wang, Hongsheng, 2022. "Cascade and hybrid processes for co-generating solar-based fuels and electricity via combining spectral splitting technology and membrane reactor," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 782-799.
    8. Alexander C. Abajian & Tamma Carleton & Kyle C. Meng & Olivier Deschênes, 2025. "Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-15, December.
    9. Østergaard, P.A. & Lund, H. & Thellufsen, J.Z. & Sorknæs, P. & Mathiesen, B.V., 2022. "Review and validation of EnergyPLAN," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    10. Voisin, Nathalie & Dyreson, Ana & Fu, Tao & O'Connell, Matt & Turner, Sean W.D. & Zhou, Tian & Macknick, Jordan, 2020. "Impact of climate change on water availability and its propagation through the Western U.S. power grid," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    11. Sapkota, Krishna & Gemechu, Eskinder & Oni, Abayomi Olufemi & Ma, Linwei & Kumar, Amit, 2022. "Greenhouse gas emissions from Canadian oil sands supply chains to China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    12. Piris-Cabezas, Pedro & Lubowski, Ruben N. & Leslie, Gabriela, 2023. "Estimating the potential of international carbon markets to increase global climate ambition," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Hu, Xuanyi & Liu, Lanbiao & Wang, Daoping, 2024. "How does regional carbon transition affect loan pricing? Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Alt, Marius & Gallier, Carlo & Kesternich, Martin & Sturm, Bodo, 2023. "Collective minimum contributions to counteract the ratchet effect in the voluntary provision of public goods," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Rong Li & Brent Sohngen & Xiaohui Tian, 2022. "Efficiency of forest carbon policies at intensive and extensive margins," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 104(4), pages 1243-1267, August.
    16. Kittisak Lohwanitchai & Daranee Jareemit, 2021. "Modeling Energy Efficiency Performance and Cost-Benefit Analysis Achieving Net-Zero Energy Building Design: Case Studies of Three Representative Offices in Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-24, May.
    17. Verástegui, Felipe & Lorca, Álvaro & Negrete-Pincetic, Matias & Olivares, Daniel, 2020. "Firewood heat electrification impacts in the Chilean power system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    18. Besagni, Giorgio & Premoli Vilà, Lidia & Borgarello, Marco & Trabucchi, Andrea & Merlo, Marco & Rodeschini, Jacopo & Finazzi, Francesco, 2021. "Electrification pathways of the Italian residential sector under socio-demographic constrains: Looking towards 2040," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    19. Aklilu, Ermias Girma & Bounahmidi, Tijani, 2025. "Leveraging machine learning hybrid framework and multi-objective optimization for efficient catalytic carbon dioxide hydrogenation to methanol," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 328(C).
    20. Róbert Csalódi & Tímea Czvetkó & Viktor Sebestyén & János Abonyi, 2022. "Sectoral Analysis of Energy Transition Paths and Greenhouse Gas Emissions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-26, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:339:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225046997. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.