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Factors influencing carbon emissions and low-carbon paths in China's transportation industry

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  • Gao, Xinran
  • Shao, Shuai
  • Gao, Qiufeng
  • Zhang, Yun
  • Wang, Xiaomeng
  • Wang, Yue

Abstract

Effectively reducing transportation carbon emissions (TCE) is necessary to achieve the carbon peaking and neutral goals. However, TCE levels vary significantly across regions. This study built a factor decomposition model to identify the key factors influencing TCE in different regions, combined with machine learning to explore the optimal low-carbon paths. The results show that (1) the regional distribution pattern of TCE is similar to the regional economic development level; (2) the key factors are heterogeneous across regions, but the energy intensity, the urban public transportation operation effect, and the urbanization effect are the key influencing factors for most regions; (3) the TCE could be reduced when optimizing the energy and transportation industry effects with economic development. Based on these results, we provided the policies for establishing regional emission reduction targets, optimizing the transport and energy structures, transforming the mode of economic development and improving management services.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Xinran & Shao, Shuai & Gao, Qiufeng & Zhang, Yun & Wang, Xiaomeng & Wang, Yue, 2025. "Factors influencing carbon emissions and low-carbon paths in China's transportation industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:323:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225014203
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.135778
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