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Decoding climate change influence: A sensitivity analysis of Iranian multi-apartment design parameters

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  • Azimi Fereidani, Nazanin
  • Rodrigues, Eugénio
  • Gaspar, Adélio R.

Abstract

Iran, a nation with substantial fossil fuel-based energy subsidies, has neglected the energy-efficient of building envelopes. This oversight resulted in inadequate thermal performance, contributing to the carbon emissions produced by the building stock. As the climate warms up, their energy demand will increase as residents adapt to the new environment. A Morris sensitivity analysis was used to determine the influence of thermal transmittance and solar heat gains of transparent elements, along with the thermal conductivity, specific heat capacity, solar absorptance, and density of opaque elements on the energy demand of a multi-apartment building in the present day and four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) in 2050 and 2080. The energy demand was simulated using EnergyPlus, and future weather was generated from the EC-Earth3 model utilizing the Future Weather Generator. The influence of design parameters will diminish over time in cities with high heating demand due to rising temperatures and improved system efficiencies. In cities with moderate heating and cooling demands, parameter influence decreases slightly, while in cities with high cooling demands, parameter importance is retained or increases depending on future scenarios. These findings emphasize the need for climate-specific and adaptive energy efficiency strategies considering the impacts of climate change.

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  • Azimi Fereidani, Nazanin & Rodrigues, Eugénio & Gaspar, Adélio R., 2025. "Decoding climate change influence: A sensitivity analysis of Iranian multi-apartment design parameters," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:318:y:2025:i:c:s0360544225003846
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2025.134742
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