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Modeling and outlook analysis of gasoline supply and demand and sensitivity analysis of main economic and social drivers

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  • Salimi, Mohsen
  • Moradi, Mohammad Ali
  • Amidpour, Majid

Abstract

Because of the strategic importance of gasoline in Iran's political economy, any decision to reform its demand has been met with strong economic, social, and political reactions. Therefore, careful consideration of the demand prospect and supply balance can provide the basis for planning for less costly management. Drivers affecting the demand for gasoline are here the same as drivers affecting the demand for automobiles and their use, which include the basic drivers of economic growth, population growth, general inflation, and ultimately gasoline price increase. The effects of these four major drivers were assessed under the reference scenario to examine the possible effects on gasoline demand, GHG emissions, and ultimately the balance of supply and demand. The results show that with every 0.25% change in the country's population growth, the amount of gasoline demand in 2035 is expected to change by 1.45 billion liters per year. The results also show that for every 1% annual increase in gasoline prices between 2021 and 2030, gasoline and GHG emissions in 2035 are expected to fall by 0.547 billion liters per year and 1287 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalence, respectively.

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  • Salimi, Mohsen & Moradi, Mohammad Ali & Amidpour, Majid, 2022. "Modeling and outlook analysis of gasoline supply and demand and sensitivity analysis of main economic and social drivers," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:256:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222015894
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124686
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