IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v141y2017icp398-422.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal shale oil and gas investments in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Tan, Siah Hong
  • Barton, Paul I.

Abstract

We present a comprehensive supply chain optimization model to determine optimal shale oil and gas infrastructure investments in the United States. The model encompasses multiple shale plays, commodities, plant locations, conversion technologies, transportation modes and both local and foreign markets. The dynamic evolution of supply, demand and price parameters and the uncertainty in parameter realizations are fully taken into account. Imposing two different scenario sets over a time horizon of twenty-five years, the model maximizes the expected net present value of the entire undertaking. We analyze the features of the optimal infrastructure investments and associated operating decisions, perform case studies which highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty into the model and analyze the stability of the stochastic solutions as the degree of uncertainty changes. The overall opportunity set of investments is sparse, and there is a tendency for over-investment in new liquefied natural gas capacity when the uncertainties in future oil prices are not taken fully into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Tan, Siah Hong & Barton, Paul I., 2017. "Optimal shale oil and gas investments in the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 398-422.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:398-422
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.092
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217316110
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.092?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bistline, John E., 2014. "Natural gas, uncertainty, and climate policy in the US electric power sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 433-442.
    2. Tan, Siah Hong & Barton, Paul I., 2016. "Optimal dynamic allocation of mobile plants to monetize associated or stranded natural gas, part II: Dealing with uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 461-467.
    3. Martín, Mariano & Grossmann, Ignacio E., 2013. "Optimal use of hybrid feedstock, switchgrass and shale gas for the simultaneous production of hydrogen and liquid fuels," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 378-391.
    4. Tan, Siah Hong & Barton, Paul I., 2015. "Optimal dynamic allocation of mobile plants to monetize associated or stranded natural gas, part I: Bakken shale play case study," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1581-1594.
    5. Knudsen, Brage Rugstad & Whitson, Curtis H. & Foss, Bjarne, 2014. "Shale-gas scheduling for natural-gas supply in electric power production," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 165-182.
    6. Owen, Susan Hesse & Daskin, Mark S., 1998. "Strategic facility location: A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 423-447, December.
    7. Melo, M.T. & Nickel, S. & Saldanha-da-Gama, F., 2009. "Facility location and supply chain management - A review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(2), pages 401-412, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Afees Adebare Salisu & Idris A. Adediran, 2018. "The U.S. Shale Oil Revolution and the Behavior of Commodity Prices," Econometric Research in Finance, SGH Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, vol. 3(1), pages 27-53, September.
    2. Li, Boying & Zheng, Mingbo & Zhao, Xinxin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "An assessment of the effect of partisan ideology on shale gas production and the implications for environmental regulations," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
    3. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    4. Chen, Lei & Huang, Ding-Bin & Wang, Shan-You & Nie, Yi-Nan & He, Ya-Ling & Tao, Wen-Quan, 2019. "A study on dynamic desorption process of methane in slits," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 1174-1180.
    5. Wang, Wenyang & Pang, Xiongqi & Chen, Zhangxin & Chen, Dongxia & Ma, Xinhua & Zhu, Weiping & Zheng, Tianyu & Wu, Keliu & Zhang, Kun & Ma, Kuiyou, 2020. "Improved methods for determining effective sandstone reservoirs and evaluating hydrocarbon enrichment in petroliferous basins," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Becerra-Fernandez, Mauricio & Cosenz, Federico & Dyner, Isaac, 2020. "Modeling the natural gas supply chain for sustainable growth policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    7. Bai, Xiwen & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2019. "A destination choice model for very large gas carriers (VLGC) loading from the US Gulf," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1267-1275.
    8. Devine, Mel & Russo, Marianna, 2018. "LNG and gas storage optimisation and valuation: lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Papers WP606, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    9. Li, Jinbu & Wang, Min & Jiang, Chunqing & Lu, Shuangfang & Li, Zheng, 2022. "Sorption model of lacustrine shale oil: Insights from the contribution of organic matter and clay minerals," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    10. Sakib, Nazmus & Ibne Hossain, Niamat Ullah & Nur, Farjana & Talluri, Srinivas & Jaradat, Raed & Lawrence, Jeanne Marie, 2021. "An assessment of probabilistic disaster in the oil and gas supply chain leveraging Bayesian belief network," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    11. Zhao, Laijun & Li, Deqiang & Guo, Xiaopeng & Xue, Jian & Wang, Chenchen & Sun, Wenjun, 2021. "Cooperation risk of oil and gas resources between China and the countries along the Belt and Road," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    12. Sun, Hai & Li, Tianhao & Li, Zheng & Fan, Dongyan & Zhang, Lei & Yang, Yongfei & Zhang, Kai & Zhong, Junjie & Yao, Jun, 2023. "Shale oil redistribution-induced flow regime transition in nanopores," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Allman, Andrew & Zhang, Qi, 2020. "Dynamic location of modular manufacturing facilities with relocation of individual modules," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 286(2), pages 494-507.
    2. Hong, Bingyuan & Li, Xiaoping & Song, Shangfei & Chen, Shilin & Zhao, Changlong & Gong, Jing, 2020. "Optimal planning and modular infrastructure dynamic allocation for shale gas production," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Sauvey, Christophe & Melo, Teresa & Correia, Isabel, 2019. "Two-phase heuristics for a multi-period capacitated facility location problem with service-differentiated customers," Technical Reports on Logistics of the Saarland Business School 16, Saarland University of Applied Sciences (htw saar), Saarland Business School.
    4. Chloe Kim Glaeser & Marshall Fisher & Xuanming Su, 2019. "Optimal Retail Location: Empirical Methodology and Application to Practice," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 21(1), pages 86-102, January.
    5. Šárka Štádlerová & Sanjay Dominik Jena & Peter Schütz, 2023. "Using Lagrangian relaxation to locate hydrogen production facilities under uncertain demand: a case study from Norway," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 1-32, December.
    6. Roberto León & Pablo A. Miranda-Gonzalez & Francisco J. Tapia-Ubeda & Elias Olivares-Benitez, 2024. "An Inventory Service-Level Optimization Problem for a Multi-Warehouse Supply Chain Network with Stochastic Demands," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-20, August.
    7. Jimenez, Charlotte & Dauzère-Pérès, Stéphane & Feuillebois, Christian & Pauly, Eric, 2013. "Optimizing the positioning and technological choices of RFID elements for aircraft part identification," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 227(2), pages 350-357.
    8. Sahling, Florian & Kayser, Ariane, 2016. "Strategic supply network planning with vendor selection under consideration of risk and demand uncertainty," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PB), pages 201-214.
    9. Mejía, Gonzalo & Aránguiz, Raúl & Espejo-Díaz, Julián Alberto & Granados-Rivera, Daniela & Mejía-Argueta, Christopher, 2023. "Can street markets be a sustainable strategy to mitigate food insecurity in emerging countries? Insights from a competitive facility location model," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    10. Ashu Kedia & Diana Kusumastuti & Alan Nicholson, 2019. "Establishing Collection and Delivery Points to Encourage the Use of Active Transport: A Case Study in New Zealand Using a Consumer-Centric Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-23, November.
    11. Ansari, Sina & Başdere, Mehmet & Li, Xiaopeng & Ouyang, Yanfeng & Smilowitz, Karen, 2018. "Advancements in continuous approximation models for logistics and transportation systems: 1996–2016," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 229-252.
    12. Schuster Puga, Matías & Minner, Stefan & Tancrez, Jean-Sébastien, 2019. "Two-stage supply chain design with safety stock placement decisions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 183-193.
    13. Basciftci, Beste & Ahmed, Shabbir & Shen, Siqian, 2021. "Distributionally robust facility location problem under decision-dependent stochastic demand," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 292(2), pages 548-561.
    14. Luohao Tang & Cheng Zhu & Zaili Lin & Jianmai Shi & Weiming Zhang, 2016. "Reliable Facility Location Problem with Facility Protection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(9), pages 1-24, September.
    15. Heckmann, Iris & Comes, Tina & Nickel, Stefan, 2015. "A critical review on supply chain risk – Definition, measure and modeling," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-132.
    16. Joy Chang & Miao Yu & Siqian Shen & Ming Xu, 2017. "Location Design and Relocation of a Mixed Car-Sharing Fleet with a CO 2 Emission Constraint," Service Science, INFORMS, vol. 9(3), pages 205-218, September.
    17. Güden, Hüseyin & Süral, Haldun, 2014. "Locating mobile facilities in railway construction management," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 71-79.
    18. Marius Chofor Asaba & Fabian Duffner & Florian Frieden & Jens Leker & Stephan von Delft, 2022. "Location choice for large‐scale battery manufacturing plants: Exploring the role of clean energy, costs, and knowledge on location decisions in Europe," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(4), pages 1514-1527, August.
    19. Sarkar, Biswajit & Majumder, Arunava, 2013. "A study on three different dimensional facility location problems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 879-887.
    20. Kidd, Martin P. & Darvish, Maryam & Coelho, Leandro C. & Gendron, Bernard, 2024. "A relax-and-restrict matheuristic for supply chain network design with facility location and customer due date flexibility," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:141:y:2017:i:c:p:398-422. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.