IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v112y2016icp1286-1298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gas networks simulation from disaggregation of low frequency nodal gas consumption

Author

Listed:
  • Askari, S.
  • Montazerin, N.
  • Fazel Zarandi, M.H.

Abstract

Natural gas distribution network aims at delivering sufficient gas flow to consumers at consumption nodes. A gas meter is installed at each consumption node of gas network which records low frequency monthly gas consumption of that node. There is also a gas meter in city gate station which records high frequency daily gas consumption of the entire network. Gas distribution companies need to know daily gas consumption of each node (consumer) and daily nodal pressure of the network for control and planning purposes. Gas consumption of each node is a time series with constant recording time step. This article presents a time series disaggregation method for related time series with identical recording times. This method disaggregates low frequency gas consumption at the nodes to high frequency consumption such that sum of consumption of all nodes in each day equals daily consumption of the entire network measured by the city gate station gas meter in that day. These high frequency data are high frequency profile of consumers' gas consumption and can give analysis of the network. The article also discusses compatibility of low frequency consumption of gas network and city gate station high frequency data and the required corrections when these data are mismatched in mathematical sense. Finally, the method is applied to a gas distribution network and results are presented and discussed. The proposed method is general and can be applied to any set of related or unrelated time series and any network with known governing equations as well as the gas network.

Suggested Citation

  • Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Fazel Zarandi, M.H., 2016. "Gas networks simulation from disaggregation of low frequency nodal gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1286-1298.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:1286-1298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544216308969
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2016.06.122?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wadud, Zia & Dey, Himadri S. & Kabir, Md. Ashfanoor & Khan, Shahidul I., 2011. "Modeling and forecasting natural gas demand in Bangladesh," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7372-7380.
    2. Li, Junchen & Dong, Xiucheng & Shangguan, Jianxin & Hook, Mikael, 2011. "Forecasting the growth of China’s natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 1380-1385.
    3. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    4. Kovačič, Miha & Šarler, Božidar, 2014. "Genetic programming prediction of the natural gas consumption in a steel plant," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 273-284.
    5. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    6. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Ghanbari, A., 2010. "An adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system for short-term natural gas demand estimation: Uncertain and complex environments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1529-1536, March.
    7. Kostowski, Wojciech J. & Skorek, Janusz, 2012. "Real gas flow simulation in damaged distribution pipelines," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 481-488.
    8. Li, Lanlan & Gong, Chengzhu & Tian, Shizhong & Jiao, Jianling, 2016. "The peak-shaving efficiency analysis of natural gas time-of-use pricing for residential consumers: Evidence from multi-agent simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 48-58.
    9. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    10. Izadyar, Nima & Ghadamian, Hossein & Ong, Hwai Chyuan & moghadam, Zeinab & Tong, Chong Wen & Shamshirband, Shahaboddin, 2015. "Appraisal of the support vector machine to forecast residential heating demand for the District Heating System based on the monthly overall natural gas consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 93(P2), pages 1558-1567.
    11. Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Zarandi, M.H. Fazel, 2015. "Forecasting semi-dynamic response of natural gas networks to nodal gas consumptions using genetic fuzzy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 252-266.
    12. Azadeh, A. & Asadzadeh, S.M. & Saberi, M. & Nadimi, V. & Tajvidi, A. & Sheikalishahi, M., 2011. "A Neuro-fuzzy-stochastic frontier analysis approach for long-term natural gas consumption forecasting and behavior analysis: The cases of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and UAE," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(11), pages 3850-3859.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-589 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Zhu, L. & Li, M.S. & Wu, Q.H. & Jiang, L., 2015. "Short-term natural gas demand prediction based on support vector regression with false neighbours filtered," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 428-436.
    15. Forouzanfar, Mehdi & Doustmohammadi, Ali & Menhaj, M. Bagher & Hasanzadeh, Samira, 2010. "Modeling and estimation of the natural gas consumption for residential and commercial sectors in Iran," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 268-274, January.
    16. M. Brabec & O. Kon�r & M. Malý & I. Kasanický & E. Pelik�n, 2015. "Statistical models for disaggregation and reaggregation of natural gas consumption data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 921-937, May.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khraief, Naceur & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Zaman, Khair Uz, 2014. "Are fluctuations in natural gas consumption per capita transitory? Evidence from time series and panel unit root tests," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 183-195.
    18. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Song, Jiancai & Zhang, Liyi & Jiang, Qingling & Ma, Yunpeng & Zhang, Xinxin & Xue, Guixiang & Shen, Xingliang & Wu, Xiangdong, 2022. "Estimate the daily consumption of natural gas in district heating system based on a hybrid seasonal decomposition and temporal convolutional network model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    2. Jean Gaston Tamba & Salom Ndjakomo Essiane & Emmanuel Flavian Sapnken & Francis Djanna Koffi & Jean Luc Nsouand l & Bozidar Soldo & Donatien Njomo, 2018. "Forecasting Natural Gas: A Literature Survey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(3), pages 216-249.
    3. Yukseltan, Ergun & Yucekaya, Ahmet & Bilge, Ayse Humeyra & Agca Aktunc, Esra, 2021. "Forecasting models for daily natural gas consumption considering periodic variations and demand segregation," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Guo-Feng Fan & An Wang & Wei-Chiang Hong, 2018. "Combining Grey Model and Self-Adapting Intelligent Grey Model with Genetic Algorithm and Annual Share Changes in Natural Gas Demand Forecasting," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, June.
    5. Ergun Yukseltan & Ahmet Yucekaya & Ayse Humeyra Bilge & Esra Agca Aktunc, 2020. "Forecasting Models for Daily Natural Gas Consumption Considering Periodic Variations and Demand Segregation," Papers 2003.13385, arXiv.org.
    6. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2015. "Forecasting of natural gas consumption with artificial neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 208-220.
    7. Ravnik, J. & Hriberšek, M., 2019. "A method for natural gas forecasting and preliminary allocation based on unique standard natural gas consumption profiles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 149-162.
    8. Konstantinos Papageorgiou & Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou & Katarzyna Poczeta & Dionysis Bochtis & George Stamoulis, 2020. "Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-32, May.
    9. Beyca, Omer Faruk & Ervural, Beyzanur Cayir & Tatoglu, Ekrem & Ozuyar, Pinar Gokcin & Zaim, Selim, 2019. "Using machine learning tools for forecasting natural gas consumption in the province of Istanbul," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 937-949.
    10. Mustafa Akpinar & Nejat Yumusak, 2016. "Year Ahead Demand Forecast of City Natural Gas Using Seasonal Time Series Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, September.
    11. Chen, Ying & Koch, Thorsten & Zakiyeva, Nazgul & Zhu, Bangzhu, 2020. "Modeling and forecasting the dynamics of the natural gas transmission network in Germany with the demand and supply balance constraint," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    12. Wang, Jianzhou & Jiang, Haiyan & Zhou, Qingping & Wu, Jie & Qin, Shanshan, 2016. "China’s natural gas production and consumption analysis based on the multicycle Hubbert model and rolling Grey model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1149-1167.
    13. Reza Hafezi & Amir Naser Akhavan & Mazdak Zamani & Saeed Pakseresht & Shahaboddin Shamshirband, 2019. "Developing a Data Mining Based Model to Extract Predictor Factors in Energy Systems: Application of Global Natural Gas Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-22, October.
    14. Wei, Nan & Yin, Lihua & Li, Chao & Liu, Jinyuan & Li, Changjun & Huang, Yuanyuan & Zeng, Fanhua, 2022. "Data complexity of daily natural gas consumption: Measurement and impact on forecasting performance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    15. Marta P. Fernandes & Joaquim L. Viegas & Susana M. Vieira & João M. C. Sousa, 2017. "Segmentation of Residential Gas Consumers Using Clustering Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-26, December.
    16. Sen, Doruk & Günay, M. Erdem & Tunç, K.M. Murat, 2019. "Forecasting annual natural gas consumption using socio-economic indicators for making future policies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1106-1118.
    17. Ding, Song, 2018. "A novel self-adapting intelligent grey model for forecasting China's natural-gas demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 393-407.
    18. Potočnik, Primož & Soldo, Božidar & Šimunović, Goran & Šarić, Tomislav & Jeromen, Andrej & Govekar, Edvard, 2014. "Comparison of static and adaptive models for short-term residential natural gas forecasting in Croatia," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 94-103.
    19. Su, Huai & Zio, Enrico & Zhang, Jinjun & Xu, Mingjing & Li, Xueyi & Zhang, Zongjie, 2019. "A hybrid hourly natural gas demand forecasting method based on the integration of wavelet transform and enhanced Deep-RNN model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 585-597.
    20. Li, Fengyun & Zheng, Haofeng & Li, Xingmei & Yang, Fei, 2021. "Day-ahead city natural gas load forecasting based on decomposition-fusion technique and diversified ensemble learning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:112:y:2016:i:c:p:1286-1298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.