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Unravelling projected energy savings in 2020 of EU Member States using decomposition analyses

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  • Smit, Tycho A.B.
  • Hu, Jing
  • Harmsen, Robert

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to provide deeper insights into the energy savings efforts of EU Member States by exploring the impact of new policies, the recent economic recession and other effects, using decomposition analyses. The results of the study show that the difference between the two official EU baseline projections, PRIMES-2007 (pre-recession, pre-Climate and Energy Package) and PRIMES-2013 (post-recession, including the new policies of the Package), can be explained by the combined impact of the new policies, the economic recession and other effects such as differences in energy prices. However, the impact of the other effects remains largely unexplained in the official PRIMES-2013 report and is clouding the right interpretation of the policy effect. By providing these insights, this study could help policy-makers in better understanding scenario outcomes and the impact of their policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Smit, Tycho A.B. & Hu, Jing & Harmsen, Robert, 2014. "Unravelling projected energy savings in 2020 of EU Member States using decomposition analyses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 271-285.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:74:y:2014:i:c:p:271-285
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.08.030
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Harmsen, Robert & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Wesselink, Bart, 2011. "Imbalance in Europe's Effort Sharing Decision: Scope for strengthening incentives for energy savings in the non-ETS sectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6636-6649, October.
    3. Thomas Hellebrandt, 2014. "Income Inequality Developments in the Great Recession," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 644, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    4. Tomas Hellebrandt, 2014. "Income Inequality Developments in the Great Recession," Policy Briefs PB14-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    5. Harmsen, Robert & Graus, Wina, 2013. "How much CO2 emissions do we reduce by saving electricity? A focus on methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 803-812.
    6. Sun, J. W., 1998. "Changes in energy consumption and energy intensity: A complete decomposition model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 85-100, February.
    7. Ang, B.W. & Zhang, F.Q., 2000. "A survey of index decomposition analysis in energy and environmental studies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 1149-1176.
    8. Harmsen, Robert & Wesselink, Bart & Eichhammer, Wolfgang & Worrell, Ernst, 2011. "The unrecognized contribution of renewable energy to Europe's energy savings target," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3425-3433, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liobikienė, Genovaitė & Butkus, Mindaugas, 2017. "The European Union possibilities to achieve targets of Europe 2020 and Paris agreement climate policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 298-309.
    2. Ang, B.W., 2015. "LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 233-238.
    3. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2017. "Driving forces for aggregate energy consumption: A cross-country approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P2), pages 1033-1050.

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