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Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections

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  • Chiari, Luca
  • Zecca, Antonio

Abstract

A scientific debate is in progress about the intersection of climate change with the new field of fossil fuels depletion geology. Here, new projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration and global-mean temperature change are presented, should fossil fuels be exploited at a rate limited by geological availability only. The present work starts from the projections of fossil energy use, as obtained from ten independent sources. From such projections an upper bound, a lower bound and an ensemble mean profile for fossil CO2 emissions until 2200 are derived. Using the coupled gas-cycle/climate model MAGICC, the corresponding climatic projections out to 2200 are obtained. We find that CO2 concentration might increase up to about 480 ppm (445-540 ppm), while the global-mean temperature increase w.r.t. 2000 might reach 1.2 °C (0.9-1.6 °C). However, future improvements of fossil fuels recovery and discoveries of new resources might lead to higher emissions; hence our climatic projections are likely to be underestimated. In the absence of actions of emissions reduction, a level of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system might be already experienced toward the middle of the 21st century, despite the constraints imposed by the exhaustion of fossil fuels.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiari, Luca & Zecca, Antonio, 2011. "Constraints of fossil fuels depletion on global warming projections," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5026-5034, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5026-5034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zecca, Antonio & Chiari, Luca, 2010. "Fossil-fuel constraints on global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-3, January.
    2. Nel, Willem P. & Cooper, Christopher J., 2009. "Implications of fossil fuel constraints on economic growth and global warming," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 166-180, January.
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    6. Jakobsson, Kristofer & Söderbergh, Bengt & Höök, Mikael & Aleklett, Kjell, 2009. "How reasonable are oil production scenarios from public agencies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4809-4818, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mwangi, John Kennedy & Lee, Wen-Jhy & Chang, Yu-Cheng & Chen, Chia-Yang & Wang, Lin-Chi, 2015. "An overview: Energy saving and pollution reduction by using green fuel blends in diesel engines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 214-236.
    2. Pambudi, Nugroho Agung & Itoi, Ryuichi & Jalilinasrabady, Saeid & Jaelani, Khasani, 2015. "Performance improvement of a single-flash geothermal power plant in Dieng, Indonesia, upon conversion to a double-flash system using thermodynamic analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 424-431.
    3. Hil Baky, Md. Abdullah & Rahman, Md. Mustafizur & Islam, A.K.M. Sadrul, 2017. "Development of renewable energy sector in Bangladesh: Current status and future potentials," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1184-1197.
    4. Höök, Mikael & Tang, Xu, 2013. "Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change—A review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 797-809.
    5. Tahseen, Samiha & Karney, Bryan W., 2017. "Reviewing and critiquing published approaches to the sustainability assessment of hydropower," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 225-234.
    6. Sakmani, Ahmad Safwan & Lam, Wei-Haur & Hashim, Roslan & Chong, Heap-Yih, 2013. "Site selection for tidal turbine installation in the Strait of Malacca," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 590-602.
    7. repec:eee:rensus:v:81:y:2018:i:p1:p:1037-1048 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Halder, P.K. & Paul, N. & Joardder, M.U.H. & Sarker, M., 2015. "Energy scarcity and potential of renewable energy in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1636-1649.

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