Heterogeneity in policy preferences for energy renovation: Evidence from a mixed-effects ordinal model

Energy renovations are a key pillar for reducing CO2 emissions and lowering energy demand in the residential sector. This work makes a central contribution by linking the determinants of renovation decisions among owner-occupiers with the impact they assign to a wide range of existing and prospective policy instruments, thereby providing robust empirical evidence for guiding the evolution of the energy renovation policy mix. The analyses rely on data from a custom-designed survey administered in 2024 to 1 400 Swiss owner-occupiers. We employ a two-step methodology, combining a descriptive analysis of the determinants and the importance assigned to the instruments with the estimation of cumulative link mixed models (CLMMs) that characterise the heterogeneity factors shaping the importance assigned to prospective instruments. The descriptive analyses show that technical and financial considerations primarily drive renovation decisions, while the procedural complexity is a major barrier. Financial instruments clearly dominate renovation incentives, with information, cooperative or regulatory measures perceived as weak motivators. Homeowners also express strong support for strengthening existing financial instruments and introducing risk-management tools, while new regulatory measures garner little support. The importance assigned to these instruments is influenced by behavioural traits and varies systematically with socio-demographic and technical characteristics. Although based on Swiss data, the similarity of building stock characteristics across Europe and the standard typology of the policy instruments examined make these conclusions relevant beyond the Swiss context.