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The cost of decarbonizing the Canadian electricity system

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  • Dolter, Brett
  • Rivers, Nicholas

Abstract

Canada’s electricity sector is predominantly low-carbon, but includes coal, natural gas, and diesel fuelled power plants. We use a new linear programming optimization model to identify least-cost pathways to decarbonize Canada’s electricity sector. We co-optimize investments in new generation, storage and transmission capacity, and the hourly dispatch of available assets over the course of a year. Our model includes hourly wind speed data for 2281 locations in Canada, hourly solar irradiation data from 199 Canadian meteorological stations, hourly demand data for each province, and inter- and intra-provincial transmission line data. We model the capacity of hydropower plants to store potential energy and respond to variations in renewable energy output and demand. We find that new transmission connections between provinces and a substantial expansion of wind power in high wind locations such as southern Saskatchewan and Alberta would allow Canada to reduce electricity sector emissions at the lowest cost. We find that hydropower plants and inter-provincial trade can provide important balancing services that allow for greater integration of variable wind power. We test the impact of carbon pricing on Canada’s optimal electricity system and find that prices of $80/tonne CO2e render the majority of Canada’s coal-fired plants uneconomic.

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  • Dolter, Brett & Rivers, Nicholas, 2018. "The cost of decarbonizing the Canadian electricity system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 135-148.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:113:y:2018:i:c:p:135-148
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.10.040
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    6. Arjmand, Reza & Monroe, Jacob & McPherson, Madeleine, 2023. "The role of emerging technologies in Canada's electricity system transition," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    7. Miri, Mohammad & Saffari, Mohammadali & Arjmand, Reza & McPherson, Madeleine, 2022. "Integrated models in action: Analyzing flexibility in the Canadian power system toward a zero-emission future," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PA).
    8. Arjmand, Reza & McPherson, Madeleine, 2022. "Canada's electricity system transition under alternative policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    9. Rodríguez-Sarasty, Jesús A. & Debia, Sébastien & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier, 2021. "Deep decarbonization in Northeastern North America: The value of electricity market integration and hydropower," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    10. Dolter, Brett, 2021. "Greening the Saskatchewan grid: A case study in deliberative energy modelling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    11. Arbuckle, Evan J. & Binsted, Matthew & Davies, Evan G.R. & Chiappori, Diego V. & Bergero, Candelaria & Siddiqui, Muhammad-Shahid & Roney, Christopher & McJeon, Haewon C. & Zhou, Yuyu & Macaluso, Nick, 2021. "Insights for Canadian electricity generation planning from an integrated assessment model: Should we be more cautious about hydropower cost overruns?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Saffari, Mohammadali & McPherson, Madeleine, 2022. "Assessment of Canada's electricity system potential for variable renewable energy integration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    13. Lambert, Mathieu & Hassani, Rachid, 2023. "Diesel genset optimization in remote microgrids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    14. Dolter, Brett & Fellows, G. Kent & Rivers, Nicholas, 2022. "The cost effectiveness of new reservoir hydroelectricity: British Columbia’s Site C project," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    15. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2018. "A quantitative analysis of Japan's optimal power generation mix in 2050 and the role of CO2-free hydrogen," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(PB), pages 1200-1219.
    16. Stringer, Thomas & Joanis, Marcelin, 2023. "Decarbonizing Canada's remote microgrids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    17. Beck, Marisa & Rivers, Nicholas & Wigle, Randall, 2018. "How do learning externalities influence the evaluation of Ontario's renewables support policies?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 86-99.
    18. Moore, Kayla R. & Holländer, Hartmut M., 2020. "Feasibility of low-temperature geothermal systems: Considerations of thermal anomalies, geochemistry, and local assets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    19. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A. Ismael F., 2020. "Cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency investments for high renewable electricity systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    20. Stringer, Thomas & Joanis, Marcelin, 2022. "Assessing energy transition costs: Sub-national challenges in Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    21. Hamagham Peter Ishaku & Humphrey Adun & Moein Jazayeri & Mehmet Kusaf, 2022. "Decarbonisation Strategy for Renewable Energy Integration for Electrification of West African Nations: A Bottom-Up EnergyPLAN Modelling of West African Power Pool Targets," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-36, November.
    22. Abreu, Mônica Cavalcanti Sá de & Webb, Kernaghan & Araújo, Francisco Sávio Maurício & Cavalcante, Jaime Phasquinel Lopes, 2021. "From “business as usual” to tackling climate change: Exploring factors affecting low-carbon decision-making in the canadian oil and gas sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PA).
    23. Matsuo, Yuhji & Endo, Seiya & Nagatomi, Yu & Shibata, Yoshiaki & Komiyama, Ryoichi & Fujii, Yasumasa, 2020. "Investigating the economics of the power sector under high penetration of variable renewable energies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    24. Zahra Jahangiri & Mackenzie Judson & Kwang Moo Yi & Madeleine McPherson, 2023. "A Deep Learning Approach for Exploring the Design Space for the Decarbonization of the Canadian Electricity System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-21, January.
    25. Rhodes, Ekaterina & Hoyle, Aaron & McPherson, Madeleine & Craig, Kira, 2022. "Understanding climate policy projections: A scoping review of energy-economy models in Canada," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).

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