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A risk evaluation method for ramping capability shortage in power systems

Author

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  • Min, C.G.
  • Park, J.K.
  • Hur, D.
  • Kim, M.K.

Abstract

This paper describes a risk evaluation method for RC (ramping capability) shortage. Two major uncertainties in power systems are considered: failure of generating units and NLFE (net load forecast error). The failure probability of generating units is calculated using a Markov-chain-based capacity state model. The NLFE is assumed to follow a normal distribution, which is represented using a seven-step approximation. The risk of RC shortage is evaluated using an index termed the RSE (RC shortage expectation), which is defined as the sum of the probabilities that the RC requirement will be not satisfied by the system. A case study was then carried out using a modified IEEE-RTS-96 to investigate the applicability of the method. Sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the relationship between the RSE and the installed capacity of wind farms, the reserve requirement, and the failure rate of the largest unit.

Suggested Citation

  • Min, C.G. & Park, J.K. & Hur, D. & Kim, M.K., 2016. "A risk evaluation method for ramping capability shortage in power systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 1316-1324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:113:y:2016:i:c:p:1316-1324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Changgi Min, 2020. "Impact Analysis of Transmission Congestion on Power System Flexibility in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-11, May.
    2. Carnero, María Carmen & Gómez, Andrés, 2017. "Maintenance strategy selection in electric power distribution systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 255-272.
    3. Chang-Gi Min & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "Net Load Carrying Capability of Generating Units in Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-13, August.
    4. Tang, Yang & Liu, Qingyou & Jing, Jiajia & Yang, Yan & Zou, Zhengwei, 2017. "A framework for identification of maintenance significant items in reliability centered maintenance," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1295-1303.
    5. Chang-Gi Min & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "Flexibility-Based Evaluation of Variable Generation Acceptability in Korean Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-12, June.
    6. Chang-Gi Min & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "Flexibility-Based Reserve Scheduling of Pumped Hydroelectric Energy Storage in Korea," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-13, September.
    7. Chang-Gi Min & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "Impact of the Complementarity between Variable Generation Resources and Load on the Flexibility of the Korean Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-13, October.
    8. Niu, Wen-jing & Feng, Zhong-kai & Cheng, Chun-tian, 2018. "Optimization of variable-head hydropower system operation considering power shortage aspect with quadratic programming and successive approximation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 1020-1028.

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