IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v83y2025ics0927539825000659.html

Does a sudden breakdown in public information search impair analyst forecast accuracy? Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Li, Zihui
  • Ma, Lijun
  • Zhang, Min

Abstract

We examine the effect of the sudden breakdown of public information search capability caused by Google’s withdrawal from mainland China on Chinese analysts’ earnings forecasts. We observe a decrease in analysts’ forecast accuracy regarding firms with foreign trade relative to those without foreign trade post-withdrawal. This decrease suggests that Google’s withdrawal has hindered analysts’ acquisition of information about firms with foreign trade, thus decreasing the quality of their earnings forecasts. We also find that the effect of this withdrawal on forecast accuracy is stronger for firms with higher business complexity and more opaque financial reporting and for analysts with weaker information processing capacity and more attention constraints. Additionally, we identify corporate site visits as an alternative information source that can compensate for the information loss caused by Google’s withdrawal and find that decreasing forecast accuracy has partially contributed to the deterioration of capital market conditions in the post-withdrawal era.

Suggested Citation

  • Li, Zihui & Ma, Lijun & Zhang, Min, 2025. "Does a sudden breakdown in public information search impair analyst forecast accuracy? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s0927539825000659
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101643
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539825000659
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2025.101643?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen P. Baginski & Kenneth C. Rakow, 2012. "Management earnings forecast disclosure policy and the cost of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 279-321, June.
    2. Gus De Franco & S.P. Kothari & Rodrigo S. Verdi, 2011. "The Benefits of Financial Statement Comparability," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 49(4), pages 895-931, September.
    3. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2010. "Sell‐Side School Ties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1409-1437, August.
    4. Ole‐Kristian Hope, 2003. "Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 235-272, May.
    5. Bing Han & Dongmin Kong & Shasha Liu, 2018. "Do Analysts Gain an Informational Advantage by Visiting Listed Companies?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(4), pages 1843-1867, December.
    6. Meng Gao & Jiekun Huang & Itay Goldstein, 2020. "Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 1367-1411.
    7. Meng Gao & Jiekun Huang & Itay GoldsteinEditor, 2020. "Informing the Market: The Effect of Modern Information Technologies on Information Production," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 33(4), pages 1367-1411.
    8. Francois Degeorge & Francois Derrien & Kent L. Womack, 2007. "Analyst Hype in IPOs: Explaining the Popularity of Bookbuilding," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1021-1058.
    9. Lior Menzly & Oguzhan Ozbas, 2010. "Market Segmentation and Cross‐predictability of Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(4), pages 1555-1580, August.
    10. Michael Firth & Chen Lin & Ping Liu & Yuhai Xuan, 2013. "The Client Is King: Do Mutual Fund Relationships Bias Analyst Recommendations?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 51(1), pages 165-200, March.
    11. Qiang Cheng & Fei Du & Xin Wang & Yutao Wang, 2016. "Seeing is believing: analysts’ corporate site visits," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 1245-1286, December.
    12. Peng, Lin, 2005. "Learning with Information Capacity Constraints," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 307-329, June.
    13. Ran Duchin, 2010. "Cash Holdings and Corporate Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(3), pages 955-992, June.
    14. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    15. Owen, Sian & Yawson, Alfred, 2013. "Information asymmetry and international strategic alliances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3890-3903.
    16. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Do Security Analysts Overreact?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 52-57, May.
    17. Eugene Soltes, 2014. "Private Interaction Between Firm Management and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 52(1), pages 245-272, March.
    18. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    19. Jinzhi Lu, 2022. "Limited Attention: Implications for Financial Reporting," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 60(5), pages 1991-2027, December.
    20. Roberts, John & Sanderson, Paul & Barker, Richard & Hendry, John, 2006. "In the mirror of the market: The disciplinary effects of company/fund manager meetings," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 277-294, April.
    21. Emilie R. Feldman, 2016. "Corporate spinoffs and analysts' coverage decisions: The implications for diversified firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(7), pages 1196-1219, July.
    22. Jere R. Francis & Stevanie S. Neuman & Nathan J. Newton, 2019. "Does Tax Planning Affect Analysts' Forecast Accuracy?†," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(4), pages 2663-2694, December.
    23. S. P. Kothari & Ted E. Laguerre & Andrew J. Leone, 2002. "Capitalization versus Expensing: Evidence on the Uncertainty of Future Earnings from Capital Expenditures versus R&D Outlays," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 355-382, December.
    24. Marco Maria Mattei & Petya Platikanova, 2017. "Do product market threats affect analyst forecast precision?," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 1628-1665, December.
    25. Michael S. Drake & Darren T. Roulstone & Jacob R. Thornock, 2012. "Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 50(4), pages 1001-1040, September.
    26. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1971. "The Private and Social Value of Information and the Reward to Inventive Activity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 561-574, September.
    27. Amy P. Hutton & Lian Fen Lee & Susan Z. Shu, 2012. "Do Managers Always Know Better? The Relative Accuracy of Management and Analyst Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 50(5), pages 1217-1244, December.
    28. Ole-Kristian Hope & Tony Kang & Wayne B Thomas & Florin Vasvari, 2009. "The effects of SFAS 131 geographic segment disclosures by US multinational companies on the valuation of foreign earnings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 40(3), pages 421-443, April.
    29. Ekkehart Boehmer & Juan (Julie) Wu, 2013. "Short Selling and the Price Discovery Process," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(2), pages 287-322.
    30. Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou‐Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, September.
    31. Sherif Nasser & Danko Turcic, 2019. "Temporary Contract Adjustment to a Retailer with a Private Demand Forecast," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(1), pages 209-229, January.
    32. Vivian W. Fang & Allen H. Huang & Jonathan M. Karpoff, 2016. "Short Selling and Earnings Management: A Controlled Experiment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1251-1294, June.
    33. Lee, Charles M.C. & Ma, Paul & Wang, Charles C.Y., 2015. "Search-based peer firms: Aggregating investor perceptions through internet co-searches," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 410-431.
    34. Bradshaw, Mark & Ertimur, Yonca & O'Brien, Patricia, 2017. "Financial Analysts and Their Contribution to Well-Functioning Capital Markets," Foundations and Trends(R) in Accounting, now publishers, vol. 11(3), pages 119-191, December.
    35. Mehran, Hamid & Stulz, Rene M., 2007. "The economics of conflicts of interest in financial institutions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 267-296, August.
    36. Sang-Hyun Kim & Serguei Netessine, 2013. "Collaborative Cost Reduction and Component Procurement Under Information Asymmetry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(1), pages 189-206, November.
    37. Valta, Philip, 2012. "Competition and the cost of debt," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 661-682.
    38. Boni, Leslie & Womack, Kent L., 2006. "Analysts, Industries, and Price Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 85-109, March.
    39. Denis, David J & Denis, Diane K & Sarin, Atulya, 1997. "Agency Problems, Equity Ownership, and Corporate Diversification," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 135-160, March.
    40. Stijn Claessens & Yishay Yafeh, 2013. "Comovement of Newly Added Stocks with National Market Indices: Evidence from Around the World," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 203-227.
    41. Lawrence D. Brown & Artur Hugon, 2009. "Team earnings forecasting," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 587-607, December.
    42. Kyle Peterson, 2012. "Accounting complexity, misreporting, and the consequences of misreporting," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 72-95, March.
    43. O'Brien, Patricia C. & Tan, Hongping, 2015. "Geographic proximity and analyst coverage decisions: Evidence from IPOs," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 41-59.
    44. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Marston, Felicia & Starks, Laura T. & Wei, Kelsey D. & Yan, Hong, 2007. "Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 420-456, August.
    45. Andrew R. Jackson, 2005. "Trade Generation, Reputation, and Sell‐Side Analysts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 673-717, April.
    46. Ferracuti, Elia, 2022. "Information uncertainty and organizational design," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1).
    47. Jarrad Harford & Feng Jiang & Rong Wang & Fei Xie, 2019. "Analyst Career Concerns, Effort Allocation, and Firms’ Information Environment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2179-2224.
    48. Manuel Ammann & Nic Schaub, 2021. "Do Individual Investors Trade on Investment-Related Internet Postings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5679-5702, September.
    49. Jacob, John & Lys, Thomas Z. & Neale, Margaret A., 1999. "Expertise in forecasting performance of security analysts," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 51-82, November.
    50. Clement, Michael B., 1999. "Analyst forecast accuracy: Do ability, resources, and portfolio complexity matter?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 285-303, July.
    51. Xu, Yongxin & Xuan, Yuhao & Zheng, Gaoping, 2021. "Internet searching and stock price crash risk: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 255-275.
    52. Ling Cen & Kalok Chan & Sudipto Dasgupta & Ning Gao, 2013. "When the Tail Wags the Dog: Industry Leaders, Limited Attention, and Spurious Cross-Industry Information Diffusion," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(11), pages 2566-2585, November.
    53. Patricia M. Fairfield & Sundaresh Ramnath & Teri Lombardi Yohn, 2009. "Do Industry‐Level Analyses Improve Forecasts of Financial Performance?," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 47(1), pages 147-178, March.
    54. David C. Burgstahler & Michael J. Eames, 2003. "Earnings Management to Avoid Losses and Earnings Decreases: Are Analysts Fooled?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 20(2), pages 253-294, June.
    55. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    56. Dongmin Kong & Chen Lin & Lai Wei & Jian Zhang, 2022. "Information Accessibility and Corporate Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(11), pages 7837-7860, November.
    57. Kemin Wang & Xiaoyun Yu & Bohui Zhang, 2023. "Panda Games: Corporate Disclosure in the Eclipse of Search," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3263-3284, June.
    58. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    59. Hongping Tan & Shiheng Wang & Michael Welker, 2011. "Analyst Following and Forecast Accuracy After Mandated IFRS Adoptions," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 49(5), pages 1307-1357, December.
    60. Uday Chandra & Andrew Procassini & Gregory Waymire, 1999. "The Use of Trade Association Disclosures by Investors and Analysts: Evidence from the Semiconductor Industry," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(4), pages 643-670, December.
    61. Christopher J. Malloy, 2005. "The Geography of Equity Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(2), pages 719-755, April.
    62. Sims, Christopher A., 2010. "Rational Inattention and Monetary Economics," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 4, pages 155-181, Elsevier.
    63. Ana Simpson, 2010. "Analysts’ Use of Nonfinancial Information Disclosures," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 249-288, March.
    64. Ana Simpson, 2010. "Analysts’ Use of Nonfinancial Information Disclosures," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 27(1), pages 7-7, March.
    65. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    66. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    67. Chen, Deqiu & Ma, Yujing & Martin, Xiumin & Michaely, Roni, 2022. "On the fast track: Information acquisition costs and information production," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 794-823.
    68. Marshall, John M, 1974. "Private Incentives and Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 64(3), pages 373-390, June.
    69. Zhang, Yuan, 2008. "Analyst responsiveness and the post-earnings-announcement drift," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 201-215, September.
    70. deHaan, Ed & Shevlin, Terry & Thornock, Jacob, 2015. "Market (in)attention and the strategic scheduling and timing of earnings announcements," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 36-55.
    71. Xianjie He & Huifang Yin & Yachang Zeng & Huai Zhang & Hailong Zhao, 2019. "Facial Structure and Achievement Drive: Evidence from Financial Analysts," Journal of Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 57(4), pages 1013-1057, September.
    72. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2017. "Before an Analyst Becomes an Analyst: Does Industry Experience Matter?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(2), pages 751-792, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    2. Suresh Kadam & Madhvi Sethi, 2026. "Mapping the Landscape of Analyst Stock Recommendations: A Bibliometric Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 17(2), pages 3740-3793, April.
    3. Choi, Hae Mi & Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2022. "Analysts’ reliance on industry-level versus firm-specific information: Implications for information production," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    4. Daniel Bradley & Sinan Gokkaya & Xi Liu, 2020. "Ties That Bind: The Value of Professional Connections to Sell-Side Analysts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(9), pages 4118-4151, September.
    5. Thomas Bourveau & Alexandre Garel & Peter Joos & Arthur Petit-Romec, 2024. "When attention is away, analysts misplay: distraction and analyst forecast performance," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 916-958, March.
    6. Ramnath, Sundaresh & Rock, Steve & Shane, Philip, 2008. "The financial analyst forecasting literature: A taxonomy with suggestions for further research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 34-75.
    7. Chen, Kejing & Guo, Wenqi & Jiang, Lin & Xiong, Xiong & Yang, Mo, 2022. "Does time-space compression affect analyst forecast performance?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    8. Hao, Han & Liu, Chun & Pang, Shunzhi, 2025. "Geographical proximity, cultural familiarity and financial information production," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Wu, Yanran & Zhang, Chao, 2022. "Hard to arbitrage, hard for analysts to forecast," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Brian Gibbons & Peter Iliev & Jonathan Kalodimos, 2021. "Analyst Information Acquisition via EDGAR," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 769-793, February.
    11. Andrei, Daniel & Friedman, Henry & Ozel, N. Bugra, 2023. "Economic uncertainty and investor attention," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 179-217.
    12. Kong, Dongmin & Ji, Mianmian & Liu, Shasha, 2022. "Does the mandatory disclosure of audit information affect analysts' information acquisition?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Felipe Cortes & Francisco Marcet, 2023. "Analysts’ Connections and M&A Outcomes," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(7), pages 4108-4133, July.
    14. Jin, Han & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wu, Yuliang & Xu, Bin, 2023. "Can star analysts make superior coverage decisions in poor information environment?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    15. Lihua Liu & Dongmin Kong & Wei Yang, 2022. "Brain gain of analysts in China: foreign experiences and forecast accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2089-2129, June.
    16. Guanming He & Yun Sun & April Zhichao Li, 2024. "Does analysts’ industrial concentration affect the quality of their forecasts?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 38(1), pages 37-91, March.
    17. Régis BRETON & Sébastien GALANTI & Christophe HURLIN & Anne-Gaël VAUBOURG, 2011. "Does the firm-analyst relationship matter in explaining analysts' earnings forecast errors?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 469, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    18. Qi Chen & William J. Mayew & Huihao Yan, 2024. "Equity analyst social interactions and geographic information transmission," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 327-353, March.
    19. Chan, Jesse & Lin, Steve & Yu, Yong & Zhao, Wuyang, 2018. "Analysts’ stock ownership and stock recommendations," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 476-498.
    20. Tsang, Albert & Xiang, Yi & Yu, Li, 2023. "Cross-border regulatory cooperation and analyst forecasts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • M40 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:83:y:2025:i:c:s0927539825000659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.