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Detecting synchronous cycles in financial time series of unequal length

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  • Reschenhofer, Erhard
  • Lingler, Michaela

Abstract

This paper proposes a modification of an optimal test for cycles in multiple time series and applies it to test the hypothesis that there is a relationship between stock returns and the phases of the moon. No significant relationship is found, which is in line with the evidence from descriptive statistics. The fact that previous studies have reached different conclusions is traced to the use of inappropriate statistical methods and data snooping.

Suggested Citation

  • Reschenhofer, Erhard & Lingler, Michaela, 2013. "Detecting synchronous cycles in financial time series of unequal length," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-9.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:1-9
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2013.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed S., 2011. "Are investors moonstruck? Further international evidence on lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 56-63, January.
    2. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    3. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    4. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    5. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    6. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    7. Anthony Herbst, 2007. "Lunacy in the Stock Market—What is the Evidence?," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 1-18, April.
    8. Werner Ploberger & Erhard Reschenhofer, 2010. "Testing for cycles in multiple time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(6), pages 427-434, November.
    9. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Frequency-domain test; Synchronous patterns; Phases of the moon; Stock returns;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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