IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v15y2008i3p503-517.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Bayesian view of temporary components in asset prices

Author

Listed:
  • Eraker, Bjørn

Abstract

This paper studies models in which the a stock price contains a random walk and a stationary component, as in Fama and French [Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French, 1988, Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Returns, Journal of Political Economy 96, 246-273.] and Poterba and Summers [Poterba, James, and Lawrence Summers, 1988, Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications, Journal of Financial Economics 22, 27-59.]. We extend this model to allow for two latent factors which generate short term and long term autocorrelations, respectively. To facilitate econometric identification, we assume that these factors are common across multiple asset returns, and we estimate the factor loadings. In an application to size and book/market sorted portfolios, we find the short term factor economically and statistically insignificant. Estimates of parameters relating to the long range component suggest that portfolios of small firm stock display about three times the amount of mean reversion than for large firm stocks. Overall, the evidence suggests that mean reversion is largely a small firm phenomenon. The evidence is consistent with dynamic equilibrium models in which asset prices co-integrate with aggregate consumption or dividends.

Suggested Citation

  • Eraker, Bjørn, 2008. "A Bayesian view of temporary components in asset prices," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 503-517, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:503-517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927-5398(07)00071-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    3. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    4. Fama, Eugene F, 1991. "Efficient Capital Markets: II," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(5), pages 1575-1617, December.
    5. Joao Gomes & Leonid Kogan & Lu Zhang, 2003. "Equilibrium Cross Section of Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 693-732, August.
    6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1988. " Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(3), pages 661-676, July.
    7. Lamoureux, Christopher G & Zhou, Guofu, 1996. "Temporary Components of Stock Returns: What Do the Data Tell Us?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(4), pages 1033-1059.
    8. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    9. Brandt, Michael W. & Kang, Qiang, 2004. "On the relationship between the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns: A latent VAR approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 217-257, May.
    10. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    11. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green & Vasant Naik, 1999. "Optimal Investment, Growth Options, and Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1553-1607, October.
    12. Ravi Bansal & Robert Dittmar & Dana Kiku, 2005. "Long-run risks and equity Returns," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Ravi Bansal & Robert F. Dittmar & Christian T. Lundblad, 2005. "Consumption, Dividends, and the Cross Section of Equity Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1639-1672, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ramzi Boussaidi, 2017. "The winner-loser effect in the Tunisian stock market: A multidimensional risk-based explanation," Borsa Istanbul Review, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 17(3), pages 178-189, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dou, Winston Wei & Ji, Yan & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Competition, profitability, and discount rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 582-620.
    2. Semenov, Andrei, 2021. "Measuring the stock's factor beta and identifying risk factors under market inefficiency," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-649.
    3. Simon van Norden & Huntley Schaller, 2002. "Fads or bubbles?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 335-362.
    4. Stefan Nagel, 2013. "Empirical Cross-Sectional Asset Pricing," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 167-199, November.
    5. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    6. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    7. Cenesizoglu, Tolga, 2011. "Size, book-to-market ratio and macroeconomic news," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 248-270, March.
    8. Lewellen, Jonathan, 2010. "Accounting anomalies and fundamental analysis: An alternative view," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2-3), pages 455-466, December.
    9. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    10. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2016. "On the intensity of liquidity spillovers in the Eurozone," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 388-405.
    11. Malamud, Semyon & Vilkov, Grigory, 2018. "Non-myopic betas," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(2), pages 357-381.
    12. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    13. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert & Wang, Zijun & Yang, Jian, 2009. "Is the Value Premium a Proxy for Time-Varying Investment Opportunities? Some Time-Series Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(1), pages 133-154, February.
    14. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2020. "Stock prices, dividends, and structural changes in the long-term: The case of U.S," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. De Moor, Lieven & Sercu, Piet, 2013. "The smallest firm effect: An international study," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 129-155.
    16. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 1305, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    17. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    18. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2015. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 125-153.
    19. Calvet, Laurent E. & Betermier, Sebastien & Jo, Evan, 2019. "A Supply and Demand Approach to Equity Pricing," CEPR Discussion Papers 13974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Geert Bekaert & Steven R. Grenadier, 1999. "Stock and Bond Pricing in an Affine Economy," NBER Working Papers 7346, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:15:y:2008:i:3:p:503-517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.