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Robust VaR and CVaR optimization under joint ambiguity in distributions, means, and covariances

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  • Lotfi, Somayyeh
  • Zenios, Stavros A.

Abstract

We develop robust models for optimization of the VaR (value at risk) and CVaR (conditional value at risk) risk measures with a minimum expected return constraint under joint ambiguity in distribution, mean returns, and covariance matrix. We formulate models for ellipsoidal, polytopic, and interval ambiguity sets of the means and covariances. The models unify and/or extend several existing models. We also show how to overcome the well-known conservativeness of robust optimization models by proposing an algorithm and a heuristic for constructing joint ellipsoidal ambiguity sets from point estimates given by multiple securities analysts. Using a controlled experiment we show how the well-known sensitivity of CVaR to mis-specifications of the first four moments of the distribution is alleviated with the robust models. Finally, applying the model to the active management of portfolios of sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) from Eurozone core and periphery, and Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe countries, we illustrate that investment strategies using robust optimization models perform well out-of-sample, even during the eurozone crisis. We consider both buy-and-hold and active management strategies.

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  • Lotfi, Somayyeh & Zenios, Stavros A., 2018. "Robust VaR and CVaR optimization under joint ambiguity in distributions, means, and covariances," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 269(2), pages 556-576.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:269:y:2018:i:2:p:556-576
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.02.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Dimitris Andriosopoulos & Michalis Doumpos & Panos M. Pardalos & Constantin Zopounidis, 2019. "Computational approaches and data analytics in financial services: A literature review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 70(10), pages 1581-1599, October.
    2. Panos Xidonas & Ralph Steuer & Christis Hassapis, 2020. "Robust portfolio optimization: a categorized bibliographic review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 292(1), pages 533-552, September.
    3. Somayyeh Lotfi & Stavros A. Zenios, 2024. "Robust mean-to-CVaR optimization under ambiguity in distributions means and covariance," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 18(7), pages 2115-2140, July.
    4. Black, Ben & Ainslie, Russell & Dokka, Trivikram & Kirkbride, Christopher, 2023. "Distributionally robust resource planning under binomial demand intakes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 227-242.
    5. Luan, Fei & Zhang, Weiguo & Liu, Yongjun, 2022. "Robust international portfolio optimization with worst‐case mean‐CVaR," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 877-890.
    6. Kaiqiang An & Guiyu Zhao & Jinjun Li & Jingsong Tian & Lihua Wang & Liang Xian & Chen Chen, 2023. "Best-Case Scenario Robust Portfolio: Evidence from China Stock Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 30(2), pages 297-322, June.
    7. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2022. "Robust portfolio selection problems: a comprehensive review," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 3203-3264, September.
    8. Kobayashi, Ken & Takano, Yuichi & Nakata, Kazuhide, 2023. "Cardinality-constrained distributionally robust portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(3), pages 1173-1182.
    9. Ebenezer Fiifi Emire Atta Mills & Bo Yu & Kailin Zeng, 2019. "Satisfying Bank Capital Requirements: A Robustness Approach in a Modified Roy Safety-First Framework," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(7), pages 1-20, July.
    10. Yan Gu & Jianlin Jiang & Shun Zhang, 2023. "Distributionally robust Weber problem with uncertain demand," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 85(3), pages 705-752, July.
    11. Chen, Chen & Liu, Dinghao & Xian, Liang & Pan, Lin & Wang, Lihua & Yang, Min & Quan, Li, 2020. "Best-case scenario robust portfolio for energy stock market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    12. Alireza Ghahtarani & Ahmed Saif & Alireza Ghasemi, 2021. "Robust Portfolio Selection Problems: A Comprehensive Review," Papers 2103.13806, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    13. Julio Cezar Soares Silva & Adiel Teixeira de Almeida Filho, 2023. "A systematic literature review on solution approaches for the index tracking problem in the last decade," Papers 2306.01660, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    14. Pei, Zhi & Lu, Haimin & Jin, Qingwei & Zhang, Lianmin, 2022. "Target-based distributionally robust optimization for single machine scheduling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 299(2), pages 420-431.
    15. Zhuo, Wenyan & Shao, Lusheng & Yang, Honglin, 2018. "Mean–variance analysis of option contracts in a two-echelon supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(2), pages 535-547.
    16. Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2020. "Integrated dynamic models for hedging international portfolio risks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 48-65.

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