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Estimation of the number of failures in the Weibull model using the ordinary differential equation

  • Hirose, Hideo
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    In estimating the number of failures using right truncated grouped data, we often encounter cases that the estimate is smaller than the true one when we use the likelihood principle to conditional probability. In infectious disease spread predictions, the SIR model described by simultaneous ordinary differential equations is commonly used, and it can predict reasonably well the number of infected patients even when the size of observed data is small. We have investigated whether the ordinary differential equation model can estimate the number of failures more accurately than does the likelihood principle under the condition of right truncated grouped data. The positive results are obtained in the Weibull model, similarly to the cases of the SARS, A(H1N1), and FMD.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221712005322
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal European Journal of Operational Research.

    Volume (Year): 223 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 722-731

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:223:y:2012:i:3:p:722-731
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor

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    1. Hirose, Hideo, 2007. "The mixed trunsored model with applications to SARS," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 74(6), pages 443-453.
    2. Ghitany, M. E. & Maller, R. A. & Zhou, S., 1994. "Exponential Mixture Models with Long-Term Survivors and Covariates," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 218-241, May.
    3. Pham, Hoang & Zhang, Xuemei, 2003. "NHPP software reliability and cost models with testing coverage," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 443-454, March.
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