Mixture cure models in credit scoring: If and when borrowers default
Mixture cure models were originally proposed in medical statistics to model long-term survival of cancer patients in terms of two distinct subpopulations – those that are cured of the event of interest and will never relapse, along with those that are uncured and are susceptible to the event. In the present paper, we introduce mixture cure models to the area of credit scoring, where, similarly to the medical setting, a large proportion of the dataset may not experience the event of interest during the loan term, i.e. default. We estimate a mixture cure model predicting (time to) default on a UK personal loan portfolio, and compare its performance to the Cox proportional hazards method and standard logistic regression. Results for credit scoring at an account level and prediction of the number of defaults at a portfolio level are presented; model performance is evaluated through cross validation on discrimination and calibration measures. Discrimination performance for all three approaches was found to be high and competitive. Calibration performance for the survival approaches was found to be superior to logistic regression for intermediate time intervals and useful for fixed 12month time horizon estimates, reinforcing the flexibility of survival analysis as both a risk ranking tool and for providing robust estimates of probability of default over time. Furthermore, the mixture cure model’s ability to distinguish between two subpopulations can offer additional insights by estimating the parameters that determine susceptibility to default in addition to parameters that influence time to default of a borrower.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas, Lyn C., 2009. "Consumer Credit Models: Pricing, Profit and Portfolios," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199232130, June.
- Thomas, Lyn C., 2009. "Modelling the credit risk for portfolios of consumer loans: Analogies with corporate loan models," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(8), pages 2525-2534.
- Thomas J. Steichen & Nicholas J. Cox, 2002. "A note on the concordance correlation coefficient," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 2(2), pages 183-189, May.
- Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Estimating Default Probabilities of CMBS Loans with Clustering and Heavy Censoring," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 93-111, August.
- Crook, Jonathan N. & Edelman, David B. & Thomas, Lyn C., 2007. "Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1447-1465, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:218:y:2012:i:1:p:132-139. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.