IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v196y2009i3p1058-1075.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Style goods pricing with demand learning

Author

Listed:
  • Sen, Alper
  • Zhang, Alex X.

Abstract

For many industries (e.g., apparel retailing) managing demand through price adjustments is often the only tool left to companies once the replenishment decisions are made. A significant amount of uncertainty about the magnitude and price sensitivity of demand can be resolved using the early sales information. In this study, a Bayesian model is developed to summarize sales information and pricing history in an efficient way. This model is incorporated into a periodic pricing model to optimize revenues for a given stock of items over a finite horizon. A computational study is carried out in order to find out the circumstances under which learning is most beneficial. The model is extended to allow for replenishments within the season, in order to understand global sourcing decisions made by apparel retailers. Some of the findings are empirically validated using data from U.S. apparel industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Sen, Alper & Zhang, Alex X., 2009. "Style goods pricing with demand learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 196(3), pages 1058-1075, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:196:y:2009:i:3:p:1058-1075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377-2217(08)00400-1
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sang Hoon Chang & David E. Fyffe, 1971. "Estimation of Forecast Errors for Seasonal-Style-Goods Sales," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 89-96, October.
    2. Katy S. Azoury, 1985. "Bayes Solution to Dynamic Inventory Models Under Unknown Demand Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(9), pages 1150-1160, September.
    3. Youyi Feng & Guillermo Gallego, 1995. "Optimal Starting Times for End-of-Season Sales and Optimal Stopping Times for Promotional Fares," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(8), pages 1371-1391, August.
    4. Guillermo Gallego & Garrett van Ryzin, 1994. "Optimal Dynamic Pricing of Inventories with Stochastic Demand over Finite Horizons," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(8), pages 999-1020, August.
    5. Gary D. Eppen & Ananth. V. Iyer, 1997. "Backup Agreements in Fashion Buying---The Value of Upstream Flexibility," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(11), pages 1469-1484, November.
    6. Gary D. Eppen & Ananth. V. Iyer, 1997. "Improved Fashion Buying with Bayesian Updates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 45(6), pages 805-819, December.
    7. Marshall Fisher & Ananth Raman, 1996. "Reducing the Cost of Demand Uncertainty Through Accurate Response to Early Sales," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 87-99, February.
    8. Yuri Levin & Jeff McGill & Mikhail Nediak, 2008. "Risk in Revenue Management and Dynamic Pricing," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(2), pages 326-343, April.
    9. Gabriel R. Bitran & Susana V. Mondschein, 1997. "Periodic Pricing of Seasonal Products in Retailing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(1), pages 64-79, January.
    10. Katy S. Azoury & Bruce L. Miller, 1984. "A Comparison of the Optimal Ordering Levels of Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Inventory Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(8), pages 993-1003, August.
    11. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1990. "Actively Learning about Demand and the Dynamics of Price Adjustment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 882-898, September.
    12. Haresh Gurnani & Christopher S. Tang, 1999. "Note: Optimal Ordering Decisions with Uncertain Cost and Demand Forecast Updating," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1456-1462, October.
    13. Popovic, Jovan B., 1987. "Decision making on stock levels in cases of uncertain demand rate," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 276-290, November.
    14. Lazear, Edward P, 1986. "Retail Pricing and Clearance Sales," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 14-32, March.
    15. George R. Murray, Jr. & Edward A. Silver, 1966. "A Bayesian Analysis of the Style Goods Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(11), pages 785-797, July.
    16. Donald L. Iglehart, 1964. "The Dynamic Inventory Problem with Unknown Demand Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 10(3), pages 429-440, April.
    17. Stephen A. Smith & Dale D. Achabal, 1998. "Clearance Pricing and Inventory Policies for Retail Chains," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(3), pages 285-300, March.
    18. Ananth. V. Iyer & Mark E. Bergen, 1997. "Quick Response in Manufacturer-Retailer Channels," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 559-570, April.
    19. Youyi Feng & Baichun Xiao, 1999. "Maximizing Revenues of Perishable Assets with a Risk Factor," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 337-341, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alfred Taudes & Christian Rudloff, 2012. "Integrating inventory control and a price change in the presence of reference price effects: a two-period model," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 75(1), pages 29-65, February.
    2. Zhang, Bin & Duan, Dongxia & Ma, Yurui, 2018. "Multi-product expedited ordering with demand forecast updates," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 196-208.
    3. Qi Chen & Qi Xu, 2022. "Joint optimal pricing and advertising policies in a fashion supply chain under the ODM strategy considering fashion level and goodwill," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 43(5), pages 1075-1105, July.
    4. Avittathur, Balram & Biswas, Indranil, 2017. "A note on limited clearance sale inventory model," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 647-653.
    5. Catherine Cleophas & Daniel Kadatz & Sebastian Vock, 2017. "Resilient revenue management: a literature survey of recent theoretical advances," Journal of Revenue and Pricing Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 16(5), pages 483-498, October.
    6. Qi Chen & Qi Xu, 0. "Joint optimal pricing and advertising policies in a fashion supply chain under the ODM strategy considering fashion level and goodwill," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-31.
    7. Wen, Xin & Choi, Tsan-Ming & Chung, Sai-Ho, 2019. "Fashion retail supply chain management: A review of operational models," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 34-55.
    8. Adhikari, Arnab & Bisi, Arnab & Avittathur, Balram, 2020. "Coordination mechanism, risk sharing, and risk aversion in a five-level textile supply chain under demand and supply uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(1), pages 93-107.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, Tsan-Ming, 2007. "Pre-season stocking and pricing decisions for fashion retailers with multiple information updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 146-170, March.
    2. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Chow, Pui-Sze, 2008. "Mean-variance analysis of Quick Response Program," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 456-475, August.
    3. Choi, Tsan-Ming & Chen, Yue & Chung, Sai Ho, 2019. "Online-offline fashion franchising supply chains without channel conflicts: Choices on postponement and contracts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C), pages 174-184.
    4. T-M Choi & D Li & H Yan, 2003. "Optimal two-stage ordering policy with Bayesian information updating," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 54(8), pages 846-859, August.
    5. Choi, Tsan-Ming (Jason) & Li, Duan & Yan, Houmin, 2006. "Quick response policy with Bayesian information updates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 170(3), pages 788-808, May.
    6. Gabriel Bitran & René Caldentey, 2003. "An Overview of Pricing Models for Revenue Management," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 5(3), pages 203-229, August.
    7. Joseph M. Milner & Panos Kouvelis, 2002. "On the Complementary Value of Accurate Demand Information and Production and Supplier Flexibility," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 4(2), pages 99-113, December.
    8. Bitran, Gabriel R. & Wadhwa, Hitendra K. S. (Hitendra Kumar Singh), 1996. "A methodology for demand learning with an application to the optimal pricing of seasonal products," Working papers 3898-96., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    9. Ibrahim, Michael Nawar & Atiya, Amir F., 2016. "Analytical solutions to the dynamic pricing problem for time-normalized revenue," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 632-643.
    10. Apostolos Burnetas & Stephen Gilbert, 2001. "Future Capacity Procurements Under Unknown Demand and Increasing Costs," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(7), pages 979-992, July.
    11. Murali K. Mantrala & Surya Rao, 2001. "A Decision-Support System that Helps Retailers Decide Order Quantities and Markdowns for Fashion Goods," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 31(3_supplem), pages 146-165, June.
    12. Joseph M. Milner & Panos Kouvelis, 2005. "Order Quantity and Timing Flexibility in Supply Chains: The Role of Demand Characteristics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(6), pages 970-985, June.
    13. Vincent C. Li & Yat-wah Wan & Chi-Leung Chu & Yi-Cheng Lin, 2020. "A Dynamic Programming-Based Heuristic for Markdown Pricing and Inventory Allocation of a Seasonal Product in a Retail Chain," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 37(01), pages 1-30, January.
    14. Victor F. Araman & René Caldentey, 2009. "Dynamic Pricing for Nonperishable Products with Demand Learning," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1169-1188, October.
    15. Namin, Aidin & Soysal, Gonca P. & Ratchford, Brian T., 2022. "Alleviating demand uncertainty for seasonal goods: An analysis of attribute-based markdown policy for fashion retailers," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 671-681.
    16. Wedad Elmaghraby & Altan Gülcü & P{i}nar Keskinocak, 2008. "Designing Optimal Preannounced Markdowns in the Presence of Rational Customers with Multiunit Demands," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 126-148, June.
    17. Cheaitou, Ali & Cheaytou, Rima, 2019. "A two-stage capacity reservation supply contract with risky supplier and forecast updating," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 42-60.
    18. Nair, Anand & Closs, David J., 2006. "An examination of the impact of coordinating supply chain policies and price markdowns on short lifecycle product retail performance," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 379-392, August.
    19. Bernardo Bertoldi & Chiara Giachino & Alberto Pastore, 2016. "Strategic pricing management in the omnichannel era," MERCATI & COMPETITIVIT?, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(4), pages 131-152.
    20. Nicholas C. Petruzzi & Maqbool Dada, 2001. "Information and Inventory Recourse for a Two-Market, Price-Setting Retailer," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 3(3), pages 242-263, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:196:y:2009:i:3:p:1058-1075. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.