Interpreting Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts
Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts have been increasingly accepted globally by both risk managers and regulators as a tool to identify and control exposure to financial market risk. However, modern portfolios are characterized by a constantly changing composition of security holdings that reflect portfolio managers' strategies, expected prices, and net cash flows into the portfolio. As a result of these factors, portfolio returns are time-varying mixtures of distributions which are unlikely to be well approximated by conventional methods.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 32 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49-(0)941-943 54 10
Fax: +49-(0)941-943 54 27
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/621171
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004.
"CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
- Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
- Engle, Robert F & Manganelli, Simone, 1999. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt06m3d6nv, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998.
"Horizon Problems and Extreme Events in Financial Risk Management,"
Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers
98-16, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 1998. "Horizon problems and extreme events in financial risk management," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 109-118.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & James O'Brien, 2002. "How Accurate Are Value-at-Risk Models at Commercial Banks?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1093-1111, 06.
- Berger, Allen N. & Herring, Richard J. & Szego, Giorgio P., 1995.
"The role of capital in financial institutions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 393-430, June.
- Allen N. Berger & Richard J. Herring & Giorgio P. Szego, 1995. "The role of capital in financial institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-23, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Allen N. Berger & Richard J. Herring & Giorgio P. Szegö, 1995. "The Role of Capital in Financial Institutions," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 95-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Danielsson, Jon, 2002.
"The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
- Jon Danielsson, 2000. "The Emperor has no Clothes: Limits to Risk Modelling," FMG Special Papers sp126, Financial Markets Group.
- Bradley, Michael G. & Wambeke, Carol A. & Whidbee, David A., 1991. "Risk weights, risk-based capital and deposit insurance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 875-893, September.
- M.J.B. Hall, 1996. "The amendment to the capital accord to incorporate market risk," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 49(197), pages 271-277.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
- Consigli, Giorgio, 2002. "Tail estimation and mean-VaR portfolio selection in markets subject to financial instability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1355-1382, July.
- Darryll Hendricks, 1996. "Evaluation of value-at-risk models using historical data," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 39-69.
- Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-62, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:32:y:2008:i:2:p:167-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.