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Spatial variability in defoliation dynamics during spruce budworm outbreaks: A landscape perspective

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  • Osse, Olaloudé Judicaël Franck
  • Marchand, Philippe
  • Girona, Miguel Montoro

Abstract

Our study explored the spatiotemporal dynamics of spruce budworm (SBW) defoliation in Quebec’s boreal forests, highlighting how climatic factors, historical defoliation, and landscape heterogeneity intersect. SBW outbreaks are a major disturbance in these ecosystems, with significant ecological and economic repercussions—underscoring the need to understand the mechanisms that drive them. Although previous research has linked warming temperatures and past defoliation patterns to more severe outbreaks, their localized effects remain poorly characterized. Our aim is to clarify these localized processes and support more targeted forest management strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Osse, Olaloudé Judicaël Franck & Marchand, Philippe & Girona, Miguel Montoro, 2025. "Spatial variability in defoliation dynamics during spruce budworm outbreaks: A landscape perspective," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 510(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:510:y:2025:i:c:s0304380025003230
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2025.111337
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Debaly, Zinsou Max & Marchand, Philippe & Girona, Miguel Montoro, 2022. "Autoregressive models for time series of random sums of positive variables: Application to tree growth as a function of climate and insect outbreak," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 471(C).
    2. Rupert Seidl & Dominik Thom & Markus Kautz & Dario Martin-Benito & Mikko Peltoniemi & Giorgio Vacchiano & Jan Wild & Davide Ascoli & Michal Petr & Juha Honkaniemi & Manfred J. Lexer & Volodymyr Trotsi, 2017. "Forest disturbances under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(6), pages 395-402, June.
    3. W. Matt Jolly & Mark A. Cochrane & Patrick H. Freeborn & Zachary A. Holden & Timothy J. Brown & Grant J. Williamson & David M. J. S. Bowman, 2015. "Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, November.
    4. Portalier, S.M.J. & Candau, J.-N. & Lutscher, F., 2024. "Larval mortality from phenological mismatch can affect outbreak frequency and severity of a boreal forest defoliator," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 493(C).
    5. Fionn Murtagh & Pierre Legendre, 2014. "Ward’s Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering Method: Which Algorithms Implement Ward’s Criterion?," Journal of Classification, Springer;The Classification Society, vol. 31(3), pages 274-295, October.
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