IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v272y2014icp388-393.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mathematical model on the effects of global climate change and decreasing forest cover on seasonal rainfall in Northern Thailand

Author

Listed:
  • Likasiri, Chulin
  • Duangdai, Eakkapong
  • Pongvuthithum, Radom

Abstract

This research involves the study of the long-term behaviors of Northern Thailand rainfall as affected by changes to its forest area and the rise in global temperature. Global temperature and forest data are considered annually while rainfall data are considered seasonally to best capture the effects of severe weather hazards such as draught and flood. A differential equation model was developed and verified using the mean global temperature data collected annually during 1880–2010, Northern Thailand forest area data collecting during 1973–2008, and data on the daily amounts of rainfall in Northern Thailand during 1971–2011. The rise in global temperature as well as the decline in Northern Thailand's forest area can be, as shown in the paper, represented by logistic equations. Northern Thailand rainfall is, however, represented as a periodic function; hence, second order differential equation, of which the solution is periodic, is used to represent the rate of change in the amount of rainfall. In addition, by correlation analysis, the predator-prey terms of forest, global temperature and rainfall are presented in the models. All parameters in the models are validated by minimizing sum squared error.

Suggested Citation

  • Likasiri, Chulin & Duangdai, Eakkapong & Pongvuthithum, Radom, 2014. "Mathematical model on the effects of global climate change and decreasing forest cover on seasonal rainfall in Northern Thailand," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 388-393.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:272:y:2014:i:c:p:388-393
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380013004985
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olchev, A. & Ibrom, A. & Ross, T. & Falk, U. & Rakkibu, G. & Radler, K. & Grote, S. & Kreilein, H. & Gravenhorst, G., 2008. "A modelling approach for simulation of water and carbon dioxide exchange between multi-species tropical rain forest and the atmosphere," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 122-130.
    2. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    3. Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel & Gherardi, Douglas Francisco Marcolino & Yoneyama, Takashi, 2008. "Optimal resource management control for CO2 emission and reduction of the greenhouse effect," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 119-126.
    4. Alexiadis, Alessio, 2007. "Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 243-256.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & Hepburn, Cameron, 2010. "Designing carbon markets. Part I: Carbon markets in time," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4363-4370, August.
    2. van den Bergh, J.C.J.M. & Botzen, W.J.W., 2015. "Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO2 emissions: A critical survey," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 33-46.
    3. Simon Levin & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2021. "On the Coevolution of Economic and Ecological Systems," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 355-377, October.
    4. Kriegler, Elmar, 2011. "Comment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 594-596, July.
    5. Sam Fankhauser & Cameron Hepburn, 2009. "Carbon markets in space and time," GRI Working Papers 3, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    6. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2017. "Cumulative emissions, unburnable fossil fuel, and the optimal carbon tax," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 216-222.
    7. Waldemar Karpa & Antonio Grginović, 2021. "(Not So) Stranded: The Case of Coal in Poland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-16, December.
    8. Colo, Philippe, 2021. "Cassandra's Curse: A Second Tragedy of the Commons," MPRA Paper 110878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
    10. Malik Curuk & Suphi Sen, 2023. "Climate Policy and Resource Extraction with Variable Markups and Imperfect Substitutes," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 1091-1120.
    11. Daniel Johansson, 2011. "Temperature stabilization, ocean heat uptake and radiative forcing overshoot profiles," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(1), pages 107-134, September.
    12. Laeven, Luc & Popov, Alexander, 2023. "Carbon taxes and the geography of fossil lending," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    13. Jin Xue & Hans Jakob Walnum & Carlo Aall & Petter Næss, 2016. "Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.
    14. Agliardi, Elettra & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2022. "Temperature targets, deep uncertainty and extreme events in the design of optimal climate policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    15. Song Gao, 2015. "Managing short-lived climate forcers in curbing climate change: an atmospheric chemistry synopsis," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5(2), pages 130-137, June.
    16. Trowell, K.A. & Goroshin, S. & Frost, D.L. & Bergthorson, J.M., 2020. "Aluminum and its role as a recyclable, sustainable carrier of renewable energy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    17. Skidmore, Samuel & Santos, Paulo & Leimona, Beria, 2012. "Seeing REDD: A Microeconomic Analysis of Carbon Sequestration in Indonesia," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126688, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Antoine GODIN & Emanuele CAMPIGLIO & Eric KEMP-BENEDICT, 2017. "Networks of stranded assets: A case for a balance sheet approach," Working Paper d51a41b5-00ba-40b4-abe6-5, Agence française de développement.
    19. W. A. Brock & A. Xepapadeas, 2015. "Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems," Working Papers 2015.66, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:272:y:2014:i:c:p:388-393. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.