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Looking for the future in the past: Long-term change in socioecological systems

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  • Barton, C. Michael
  • Ullah, Isaac I.T.
  • Bergin, Sean M.
  • Mitasova, Helena
  • Sarjoughian, Hessam

Abstract

The archaeological record has been described as a key to the long-term consequences of human action that can help guide our decisions today. Yet the sparse and incomplete nature of this record often makes it impossible to inferentially reconstruct past societies in sufficient detail for them to serve as more than very general cautionary tales of coupled socio-ecological systems. However, when formal and computational modeling is used to experimentally simulate human socioecological dynamics, the empirical archaeological record can be used to validate and improve dynamic models of long term change. In this way, knowledge generated by archaeology can play a unique and valuable role in developing the tools to make more informed decisions that will shape our future. The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics project offers an example of using the past to develop and test computational models of interactions between land-use and landscape evolution that ultimately may help guide decision-making.

Suggested Citation

  • Barton, C. Michael & Ullah, Isaac I.T. & Bergin, Sean M. & Mitasova, Helena & Sarjoughian, Hessam, 2012. "Looking for the future in the past: Long-term change in socioecological systems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 241(C), pages 42-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:241:y:2012:i:c:p:42-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.02.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lilian N. Alessa & Melinda Laituri & C. Michael Barton, 2006. "An "All Hands" Call to the Social Science Community: Establishing a Community Framework for Complexity Modeling Using Agent Based Models and Cyberinfrastructure," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 9(4), pages 1-6.
    2. Marco A. Janssen & Lilian N. Alessa & C. Michael Barton & Sean Bergin & Allen Lee, 2008. "Towards a Community Framework for Agent-Based Modelling," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6.
    3. Bhatt, B. P. & Sachan, M. S., 2004. "Firewood consumption pattern of different tribal communities in Northeast India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-6, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Yearworth & Sarah E. Cornell, 2016. "Contested Modelling: a Critical Examination of Expert Modelling in Sustainability," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 45-63, January.
    2. Charlotte Till & Jamie Haverkamp & Devin White & Budhendra Bhaduri, 2018. "Understanding climate-induced migration through computational modeling: A critical overview with guidance for future efforts," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 15(4), pages 415-435, October.
    3. Gerrit Günther & Thomas Clemen & Rainer Duttmann & Brigitta Schütt & Daniel Knitter, 2021. "Of Animal Husbandry and Food Production—A First Step towards a Modular Agent-Based Modelling Platform for Socio-Ecological Dynamics," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-25, December.
    4. C. Michael Barton & Isaac Ullah & Arjun Heimsath, 2015. "How to Make a Barranco: Modeling Erosion and Land-Use in Mediterranean Landscapes," Land, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-29, July.

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