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Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)

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  • Manso, Rubén
  • Pardos, Marta
  • Keyes, Christopher R.
  • Calama, Rafael

Abstract

Natural regeneration in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) managed forests in the Spanish Northern Plateau is not achieved successfully under current silviculture practices, constituting a main concern for forest managers. We modelled spatio-temporal features of primary dispersal to test whether (a) present low stand densities constrain natural regeneration success and (b) seed release is a climate-controlled process. The present study is based on data collected from a 6 years seed trap experiment considering different regeneration felling intensities. From a spatial perspective, we attempted alternate established kernels under different data distribution assumptions to fit a spatial model able to predict P. pinea seed rain. Due to P. pinea umbrella-like crown, models were adapted to account for crown effect through correction of distances between potential seed arrival locations and seed sources. In addition, individual tree fecundity was assessed independently from existing models, improving parameter estimation stability. Seed rain simulation enabled to calculate seed dispersal indexes for diverse silvicultural regeneration treatments. The selected spatial model of best fit (Weibull, Poisson assumption) predicted a highly clumped dispersal pattern that resulted in a proportion of gaps where no seed arrival is expected (dispersal limitation) between 0.25 and 0.30 for intermediate intensity regeneration fellings and over 0.50 for intense fellings. To describe the temporal pattern, the proportion of seeds released during monthly intervals was modelled as a function of climate variables – rainfall events – through a linear model that considered temporal autocorrelation, whereas cone opening took place over a temperature threshold. Our findings suggest the application of less intensive regeneration fellings, to be carried out after years of successful seedling establishment and, seasonally, subsequent to the main rainfall period (late fall). This schedule would avoid dispersal limitation and would allow for a complete seed release. These modifications in present silviculture practices would produce a more efficient seed shadow in managed stands.

Suggested Citation

  • Manso, Rubén & Pardos, Marta & Keyes, Christopher R. & Calama, Rafael, 2012. "Modelling the spatio-temporal pattern of primary dispersal in stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) stands in the Northern Plateau (Spain)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 226(C), pages 11-21.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:226:y:2012:i:c:p:11-21
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.11.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Colin Dawson & Julian F. V. Vincent & Anne-Marie Rocca, 1997. "How pine cones open," Nature, Nature, vol. 390(6661), pages 668-668, December.
    2. Ran Nathan & Gabriel G. Katul & Henry S. Horn & Suvi M. Thomas & Ram Oren & Roni Avissar & Stephen W. Pacala & Simon A. Levin, 2002. "Mechanisms of long-distance dispersal of seeds by wind," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6896), pages 409-413, July.
    3. Nanos, Nikos & Larson, Kajsa & Millerón, Matias & Sjöstedt-de Luna, Sara, 2010. "Inverse modeling for effective dispersal: Do we need tree size to estimate fecundity?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(20), pages 2415-2424.
    4. Sagnard, Fabrice & Pichot, Christian & Dreyfus, Philippe & Jordano, Pedro & Fady, Bruno, 2007. "Modelling seed dispersal to predict seedling recruitment: Recolonization dynamics in a plantation forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 464-474.
    5. Calama, Rafael & Mutke, Sven & Tomé, José & Gordo, Javier & Montero, Gregorio & Tomé, Margarida, 2011. "Modelling spatial and temporal variability in a zero-inflated variable: The case of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.) cone production," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 606-618.
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    Cited by:

    1. Holmström, Emma & Karlsson, Matts & Nilsson, Urban, 2017. "Modeling birch seed supply and seedling establishment during forest regeneration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 352(C), pages 31-39.
    2. Calama, Rafael & Puértolas, Jaime & Madrigal, Guillermo & Pardos, Marta, 2013. "Modeling the environmental response of leaf net photosynthesis in Pinus pinea L. natural regeneration," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 251(C), pages 9-21.

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