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Surface modeling of human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in China

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  • Yue, Tian-Xiang
  • Tian, Yong-Zhong
  • Liu, Ji-Yuan
  • Fan, Ze-Meng

Abstract

Surface models are developed for simulating the food provision capacities of cropland, grassland, woodland, and aquatic ecosystems. Based on these models, it appears that China's current agricultural structure is responsible for the shortage of food. If the agricultural production structure was improved so as to result in balanced nutritional value, the human carrying capacity would be 2029, 1914, and 1794 million individuals, living under the standards of the primary well-to-do life, full well-to-do life, and well-off life, respectively, taking into account the threshold of the human carrying capacity and an 11% production drop caused by natural disasters. If 57billionm3 of water were transferred from southern to northern China by a south-to-north water diversion project and 17.3billionm3 of water were diverted into agriculture, the human carrying capacity would be 2058, 1940, and 1817 million individuals, respectively, under the three living standards.

Suggested Citation

  • Yue, Tian-Xiang & Tian, Yong-Zhong & Liu, Ji-Yuan & Fan, Ze-Meng, 2008. "Surface modeling of human carrying capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 168-180.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:214:y:2008:i:2:p:168-180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.01.025
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    1. Yigang Wei & Cui Huang & Patrick T. I. Lam & Yong Sha & Yong Feng, 2015. "Using Urban-Carrying Capacity as a Benchmark for Sustainable Urban Development: An Empirical Study of Beijing," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-25, March.
    2. Fangyu Zheng & Chiwei Xiao & Zhen You & Zhiming Feng, 2022. "Evaluating the Resources and Environmental Carrying Capacity in Laos Using a Three-Dimensional Tetrahedron Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Xiao-meng Song & Fan-zhe Kong & Che-sheng Zhan, 2011. "Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Tianjin City of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 857-873, February.
    4. Chao Zhang & Yanzhao Yang & Chiwei Xiao & Zhen You & Xinzhe Song, 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Patterns of the Land Carrying Capacity of Tibet Based on Grain Demand and Calorie Requirement," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Wang, Qing & Liu, Xuehua & Yue, Tianxiang & Wang, Chenliang & Wilson, John P., 2015. "Using models and spatial analysis to analyze spatio-temporal variations of food provision and food potential across China's agro-ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 306(C), pages 152-159.
    6. Yue, Tian-Xiang & Jorgensen, Sven E. & Larocque, Guy R., 2011. "Progress in global ecological modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(14), pages 2172-2177.

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