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Crime prevention through urban requalification and municipal police presence

Author

Listed:
  • Guerra, Julia
  • Monteiro, Joana
  • Pecanha, Vinicius

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of the Conjunto de Estratégias de Prevenção (CEP) Program on street crimes in Rio de Janeiro. CEP is a place-based intervention that combines improved urban design with focused policing. The program pilot project was carried out in 2021 in a commercial area ranked among the 10 micro-areas that concentrated more street crimes in Rio de Janeiro. We use a synthetic difference-in-differences approach to construct a counterfactual for the treated area. The results indicate a significant decline in street crimes after intervention, driven primarily by a reduction in thefts. These findings are robust to alternative estimation strategies and suggest the program effectively curbed crime escalation relative to a synthetic control. Our study highlights the potential of a place-based intervention as a tool for urban crime prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerra, Julia & Monteiro, Joana & Pecanha, Vinicius, 2025. "Crime prevention through urban requalification and municipal police presence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500285x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112448
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    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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