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Crime prevention through urban requalification and municipal police presence

Author

Listed:
  • Guerra, Julia
  • Monteiro, Joana
  • Pecanha, Vinicius

Abstract

This study evaluates the impact of the Conjunto de Estratégias de Prevenção (CEP) Program on street crimes in Rio de Janeiro. CEP is a place-based intervention that combines improved urban design with focused policing. The program pilot project was carried out in 2021 in a commercial area ranked among the 10 micro-areas that concentrated more street crimes in Rio de Janeiro. We use a synthetic difference-in-differences approach to construct a counterfactual for the treated area. The results indicate a significant decline in street crimes after intervention, driven primarily by a reduction in thefts. These findings are robust to alternative estimation strategies and suggest the program effectively curbed crime escalation relative to a synthetic control. Our study highlights the potential of a place-based intervention as a tool for urban crime prevention.

Suggested Citation

  • Guerra, Julia & Monteiro, Joana & Pecanha, Vinicius, 2025. "Crime prevention through urban requalification and municipal police presence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:254:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500285x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112448
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Susan Athey & David A. Hirshberg & Guido W. Imbens & Stefan Wager, 2021. "Synthetic Difference-in-Differences," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 4088-4118, December.
    2. Jens Ludwig & Jeffrey R. Kling & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2011. "Mechanism Experiments and Policy Evaluations," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 17-38, Summer.
    3. Diego Ciccia, 2024. "A Short Note on Event-Study Synthetic Difference-in-Differences Estimators," Papers 2407.09565, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Anthony Braga & Andrew Papachristos & David Hureau, 2012. "Hot spots policing effects on crime," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(1), pages 1-96.
    5. Brandon C. Welsh & David P. Farrington, 2008. "Effects of Improved Street Lighting on Crime," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 4(1), pages 1-51.
    6. Christopher Blattman & Donald P Green & Daniel Ortega & Santiago Tobón, 2021. "Place-Based Interventions at Scale: The Direct and Spillover Effects of Policing and City Services on Crime [Clustering as a Design Problem]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 2022-2051.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H76 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Other Expenditure Categories
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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