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The impact of Nasdaq-100, U.S. Dollar Index and commodities on cryptocurrency: New evidence from Augmented ARDL approach

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  • Aliyev, Fuzuli
  • Eylasov, Neman

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of the NASDAQ-100 index, the US dollar index and commodities on cryptocurrencies - bitcoin and Ethereum. The research used monthly data from January 2017 to August 2024, with a total of ninety-two observations. The stationarity of the variables was analyzed using different unit root tests, and it was found that the variables are stationary at different levels. In this context, the long-run cointegration relationship between the variables was first examined using the Augmented ARDL bounds test, and the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship was identified. According to the results of the long run estimation methods used in the study, we find that the US dollar index has a negative impact on both bitcoin and Ethereum, there is a positive and significant relationship between the Nasdaq index and bitcoin, while the relationship between the Nasdaq index and Ethereum is positive but not statistically significant. On the other hand, we find evidence that oil prices have a positive impact on both bitcoin and Ethereum. As a safe haven, we find no statistically significant relationship between gold and either bitcoin or Ethereum. These findings provide an important perspective on the impact of macroeconomic factors and commodity prices on cryptocurrencies.

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  • Aliyev, Fuzuli & Eylasov, Neman, 2025. "The impact of Nasdaq-100, U.S. Dollar Index and commodities on cryptocurrency: New evidence from Augmented ARDL approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:247:y:2025:i:c:s016517652500028x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112191
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