Did the US consumer overreact? A test of rational expectations
Using data for the US economy from 1995 to 2008, I estimate a business cycle model in which consumers form expectations rationally, and an alternative model that explicitly allows for deviations from rational expectations in the form of overreaction to noisy signals. The second model does not have any advantage in explaining the movements in consumption and productivity in this period. Therefore, I cannot reject the hypothesis that consumers behaved rationally. The rather exuberant movements of this episode are rationalized by a story in which permanent income consumers find it hard to distinguish between permanent movements in productivity and temporary ones. Consumers who update their beliefs about trends in productivity on the basis of fairly noisy signals adjust their behavior very slowly. After the 1995–2000 productivity boom, consumers learnt very slowly about a subsequent decline in productivity growth, which led to financial and trade imbalances that ended in a correction starting around 2007. The whole boom-bust cycle was long, taking about 14 years to complete.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
- Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. " Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(3), pages 591-601, July.
- Luboš Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009.
"Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(4), pages 1451-1483, September.
- Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2005. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 11876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pástor, Luboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2005. "Technological Revolutions and Stock Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 5428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:116:y:2012:i:2:p:207-209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.