Navigating pressure and profit: Coastal population dynamics, IUU fishing, and fisheries sustainability in Somalia

Fisheries are central to Somalia's blue economy, supporting livelihoods, nutrition, and export potential, yet the sector faces mounting pressures from illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, rapid coastal population growth, institutional fragility, and marine environmental variability. This study examines how coastal population pressure, IUU fishing, conflict, institutional quality, sea-level pressure (SLP), and income (GDP per capita) relate to fish production in Somalia using annual time-series data for 1989–2023. We employ Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) models to capture short-run dynamics and long-run relationships, complemented by FMOLS and CCR for cointegration-robust long-run estimation. Results indicate horizon-dependent and asymmetric population-pressure effects: short-run increases in pressure are associated with lower fish output, while longer-run relationships vary across specifications. IUU fishing is negatively associated with fish production, with evidence of adverse effects in both the short and long run, consistent with stock pressure and displacement of legal fishing activity. Conflict shows dynamic effects consistent with short-run coping responses alongside longer-run constraints on sector performance in fragile settings. Institutional quality is positively associated with fish production in the long run. Policy implications emphasize strengthening maritime governance and enforcement against IUU, managing coastal demographic pressures through spatial planning and livelihood diversification, improving fisheries institutions and compliance systems, and enhancing adaptive capacity to variable marine conditions. These measures are essential to convert Somalia's marine resources from an exploited commons into a sustainable foundation for development.