Economic assessment of increasing tree cover in Kenya: The cost of maintaining forest contiguity

As strategies to increase forest cover become more widespread as part of countries' environmental commitments, assessing the trade-offs between economic and environmental aspects of forestry activities is an increasingly pressing issue. This article addresses this question by assessing the cost-effectiveness of increasing forest cover under different land use management strategies that differ in their environmental and economic focus. Our analysis is conducted at the national level in Kenya, a country known for its ambitious environmental policies. Our findings show that prioritizing forest contiguity has a higher economic impact than targeting areas with the lowest opportunity costs, and significantly reduces the cost-effective mitigation potential when applied strictly. In addition, our results suggest that land use strategies affect the shape of the land opportunity cost and marginal abatement cost curves, which may exhibit decreasing and non-convex shapes. Overall, this paper argues that careful consideration of land management systems for increasing forest cover is essential to achieve an optimal balance between environmental benefits and economic costs.