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The crisis, Fed, Quants and stochastic optimal control

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  • Stein, Jerome L.

Abstract

The Dodd–Frank (D–F) Financial Reform Bill authorizes the Federal Reserve to monitor the financial services marketplace to identify potential threats to the stability of the US financial system. Alan Greenspan's retrospective indicates what he has learned from the crisis. He argues that the crisis, the housing price bubble, was unpredictable and unavoidable. Greenspan now focuses on desirable capital requirements, or leverage, for banks and financial intermediaries. I explain why the Fed's and Greenspan's views stem from a lack of the appropriate tools of analysis of what is an excessive debt or leverage. The Quants who devised the highly leveraged financial derivatives ignored systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Stein, Jerome L., 2011. "The crisis, Fed, Quants and stochastic optimal control," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 272-280.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:272-280
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.09.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "Optimal Debt And Endogenous Growth In Models Of International Finance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 389-413, December.
    2. Stein, Jerome L., 2010. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-24.
    3. Wendell H. Fleming, 2005. "Optimal Investment Models With Minimum Consumption Criteria," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 307-321, December.
    4. Shojai, Shahin & Feiger, George, 2010. "Economists’ hubris – the case of risk management," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 28, pages 27-35.
    5. Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
    6. Shojai, Shahin & Feiger, George & Kumar, Rajesh, 2010. "Economists’ hubris — the case of equity asset management," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 29, pages 9-16.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jerome L. Stein, 2011. "The Diversity of Debt Crises in Europe," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 44-51, December.
    2. Jerome L. Stein, 2010. "Greenspan, Dodd-Frank and Stochastic Optimal Control," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 55-62, December.
    3. Tan, Senren & Jin, Zhuo & Wu, Fuke, 2015. "Arbitrage and leverage strategies in bubbles under synchronization risks and noise-trader risks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 331-343.
    4. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    5. Wei-han Liu, 2023. "Attaining stochastic optimal control over debt ratios in U.S. markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 967-993, October.
    6. Stein Jerome L., 2011. "US Financial Debt Crisis: A Stochastic Optimal Control Approach," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 62(3), pages 197-217, December.
    7. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dodd–Frank reform bill; Greenspan; Capital requirements; Stochastic optimal control; Warning signals of crisis; Optimal leverage and debt ratios; Bubbles; Dodd–Frank bill;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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