The crisis, Fed, Quants and stochastic optimal control
The Dodd-Frank (D-F) Financial Reform Bill authorizes the Federal Reserve to monitor the financial services marketplace to identify potential threats to the stability of the US financial system. Alan Greenspan's retrospective indicates what he has learned from the crisis. He argues that the crisis, the housing price bubble, was unpredictable and unavoidable. Greenspan now focuses on desirable capital requirements, or leverage, for banks and financial intermediaries. I explain why the Fed's and Greenspan's views stem from a lack of the appropriate tools of analysis of what is an excessive debt or leverage. The Quants who devised the highly leveraged financial derivatives ignored systemic risk. My theme is that the application of stochastic optimal control (SOC) is an effective approach to implement what the D-F bill is authorizing. I explain: first, what is the optimal capital requirement/leverage that balances expected return against risk. Second, what is a theoretically derived early warning signal of a crisis. Third, I derive an excess debt ratio, equal to the difference between the actual and optimal ratios. The probability of a debt crisis is directly related to the excess debt ratio. The excess debt ratio starting from 2004-05 indicated that a crisis was most likely. The Fed should use this SOC analysis in implementing the Dodd-Frank bill.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "Optimal Debt And Endogenous Growth In Models Of International Finance," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 389-413, December.
- Wendell Fleming & Jerome L. Stein, 2002.
"Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
744, CESifo Group Munich.
- Fleming, Wendell H. & Stein, Jerome L., 2004. "Stochastic optimal control, international finance and debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 979-996, May.
- Stein Jerome & Wendell Fleming, . "Stochastic Optimal Control, International Finance and Debt," EcoMod2002 330800063, EcoMod.
- Jerome L. Stein, 2008.
"A Tale of Two Debt Crises: A Stochastic Optimal Control Analysis,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
2220, CESifo Group Munich.
- Stein, Jerome L., 2010. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 4, pages 1-24.
- Stein, Jerome L., 2009. "A tale of two debt crises: a stochastic optimal control analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-44, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Shojai, Shahin & Feiger, George, 2010. "Economists’ hubris – the case of risk management," Journal of Financial Transformation, Capco Institute, vol. 28, pages 27-35.
- Wendell H. Fleming, 2005. "Optimal Investment Models With Minimum Consumption Criteria," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 307-321, December.
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