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The choice between multiplicative and additive production uncertainty

  • Alghalith, Moawia
  • Dalal, Ardeshir
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    When modeling output uncertainty, the multiplicative specification is consistently chosen over the additive form, despite the latter being arguably intuitively more obvious. The rationale for this seems to be that when production risk is the only source of uncertainty, additive uncertainty does not reduce output below the certainty level, while multiplicative uncertainty does. We show that, in the absence of hedging, this result is drastically modified when there is simultaneous price and output uncertainty. In this situation the theoretical implications of the two specifications are sufficiently similar to preclude any a priori choice between the two. Thus the choice between the additive and multiplicative formulations may be dictated by how each performs in empirical analyses.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

    Volume (Year): 26 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 5 (September)
    Pages: 1129-1133

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:5:p:1129-1133
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    1. Harvey Lapan & Giancarlo Moschini, 1994. "Futures Hedging Under Price, Basis, and Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 76(3), pages 465-477.
    2. Britto, Ronald, 1980. "Resource Allocation in a Simple, Two-Sector Model with Production Risk," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 363-70, June.
    3. Moavia Alghalith, 2003. "Estimation and Econometric Tests Under Simultaneous Price and Output Uncertainty," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0302, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
    4. Dalal, Ardeshir J. & Alghalith, Moawia, 2009. "Production decisions under joint price and production uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 84-92, August.
    5. Moavia Alghalith, 2003. "Empirical Analysis under Additive/Multiplicative Output Uncertainty," CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0301, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm.
    6. Dalal, Ardeshir J & Arshanapalli, Bala G, 1993. " Estimating the Demand for Risky Assets via the Indirect Expected Utility Function," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 277-88, June.
    7. Losq, Etienne, 1982. "Hedging with price and output uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 65-70.
    8. Moawia Alghalith, 2006. "Hedging decisions with price and output uncertainty," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 225-227, March.
    9. Batra, Raveendra N., 1974. "Resource allocation in a general equilibrium model of production under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 50-63, May.
    10. Moawia Alghalith, 2005. "Estimation with price and output uncertainty," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 247-257, November.
    11. Viaene, Jean-Marie & Zilcha, Itzhak, 1998. "The Behavior of Competitive Exporting Firms under Multiple Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(3), pages 591-609, August.
    12. Honda, Yuzo, 1983. "Production uncertainty and the input decision of the competitive firm facing the futures market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 87-92.
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