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Optimal monetary rules under persistent shocks

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  • Bhattacharya, Joydeep
  • Singh, Rajesh

Abstract

The tug-o-war for supremacy between inflation targeting and monetary targeting is a classic, yet timely topic, in monetary economics. In this paper, we revisit this issue within the context of a pure-exchange, overlapping generations model in which spatial separation and random relocation create an endogenous demand for money. We study AR(1) shocks to both real output and the real interest rate. Irrespective of the nature of the shocks, the optimal inflation target is always positive. Under monetary targeting, shocks to output necessitate negative money growth rates; for shocks to real interest rates, money growth rates may be either positive or negative depending on the elasticity of consumption substitution. Also, for output shocks, monetary targeting welfare-dominates inflation targeting but the gap between the two vanishes as the shock process approaches a random walk. In sharp contrast, for shocks to the real interest rate, we prove that monetary targeting and inflation targeting are welfare-equivalent only in the limit as the shocks become i.i.d. The upshot is that persistence of the underlying fundamental uncertainty matters: depending on the nature of the shock, policy responses need to be either more or less aggressive as persistence increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2010. "Optimal monetary rules under persistent shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1277-1294, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:7:p:1277-1294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2005. "Optimal Choice of Monetary Instruments in an Economy with Real and Liquidity Shocks," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12355, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. William Poole & Charles Lieberman, 1972. "Improving Monetary Control," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 3(2), pages 293-342.
    3. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2008. "Usefulness Of The Constrained Planning Problem In A Model Of Money," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 503-525, September.
    4. Antinolfi, Gaetano & Keister, Todd, 2006. "Discount Window Policy, Banking Crises, And Indeterminacy Of Equilibrium," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 1-19, February.
    5. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Malik Shukayev & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Price Stability Over the Long-Run," Staff Working Papers 07-26, Bank of Canada.
    6. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Singh, Rajesh, 2008. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in an economy with real and liquidity shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1273-1311, April.
    7. Schreft, Stacey L. & Smith, Bruce D., 1997. "Money, Banking, and Capital Formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 157-182, March.
    8. Townsend, Robert M, 1987. "Economic Organization with Limited Communication," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 954-971, December.
    9. William Poole, 1969. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Special Studies Papers 2, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Gomis-Porqueras, Pere & Smith, Bruce D., 2003. "Seasonality And Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 477-502, September.
    11. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Shukayev, Malik & Ueberfeldt, Alexander, 2011. "Optimal monetary policy under incomplete markets and aggregate uncertainty: A long-run perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1045-1060, July.

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