IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v32y2008i12p3917-3938.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Information shocks and precautionary saving

Author

Listed:
  • Feigenbaum, James

Abstract

Skinner's [1988. Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings. Journal of Monetary Economics 22, 237-255] second-order approximation to the consumption function under CRRA utility is generalized to accommodate any structure of uninsurable income risk. To second order, a future income shock will induce precautionary saving in the present that depends on the variance of the expectation of the income shock at each intervening period. However, the expected rate of consumption growth depends only on the currently perceived variance of the expected present value of future income. In a finite-horizon model, precautionary saving produces a hump-shaped lifecycle profile of mean consumption primarily because the variance of future income decreases with age, but the lifecycle dynamics of total wealth also affect the shape of the profile. For a Markov income process with autocorrelations on the order of 0.9 or less, the second-order approximation performs surprisingly well for common parameter choices from the literature, but it does poorly as the autocorrelation approaches 1.

Suggested Citation

  • Feigenbaum, James, 2008. "Information shocks and precautionary saving," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(12), pages 3917-3938, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:3917-3938
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1889(08)00073-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eeckhoudt, Louis & Gollier, Christian & Treich, Nicolas, 2005. "Optimal consumption and the timing of the resolution of uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 761-773, April.
    2. Caballero, Ricardo J., 1990. "Consumption puzzles and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 113-136, January.
    3. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    4. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Idiosyncratic Risk and Overlapping Generations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(4), pages 519-548, October.
    5. Padula, Mario, 2010. "An approximate consumption function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 404-416, March.
    6. Fatih Guvenen, 2007. "Learning Your Earning: Are Labor Income Shocks Really Very Persistent?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 687-712, June.
    7. Christopher D. Carroll, 2004. "Theoretical Foundations of Buffer Stock Saving," Economics Working Paper Archive 517, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    8. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    9. Feigenbaum, James, 2005. "Second-, third-, and higher-order consumption functions: a precautionary tale," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1385-1425, August.
    10. Domeij David & Johannesson Magnus, 2006. "Consumption and Health," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-30, May.
    11. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 2002. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 47-89, January.
    12. Huggett, Mark & Ospina, Sandra, 2001. "Aggregate precautionary savings: when is the third derivative irrelevant?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 373-396, October.
    13. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    14. Nagatani, Keizo, 1972. "Life Cycle Saving: Theory and Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 344-353, June.
    15. Blundell, Richard & M. Stoker, Thomas, 1999. "Consumption and the timing of income risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 475-507, March.
    16. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
    17. Skinner, Jonathan, 1988. "Risky income, life cycle consumption, and precautionary savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 237-255, September.
    18. Thurow, Lester C, 1969. "The Optimum Lifetime Distribution of Consumption Expenditures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 324-330, June.
    19. Jerusalem D. Levhari & T. N. Srinivasan, 1969. "Optimal Savings under Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(2), pages 153-163.
    20. Huggett, Mark, 1996. "Wealth distribution in life-cycle economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 469-494, December.
    21. repec:pit:wpaper:227 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. A. Sandmo, 1970. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Saving Decisions," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 353-360.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bagchi Shantanu, 2017. "Can removing the tax cap save Social Security?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-28, June.
    2. repec:nsr:niesrd:407 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Padula, Mario, 2010. "An approximate consumption function," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 404-416, March.
    4. repec:pit:wpaper:368 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bagchi, Shantanu, 2016. "Is The Social Security Crisis Really As Bad As We Think?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(03), pages 737-776, April.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:84:y:2017:i:c:p:58-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paolo Lucchino & Dr Justin van de Ven, 2013. "Empirical Analysis of Household Savings Decisions in Context of Uncertainty: A cross-sectional approach," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 417, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Feigenbaum, James, 2011. "Precautionary saving or denied dissaving," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1559-1572, July.
    9. repec:pit:wpaper:360 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Justin Van de Ven, 2016. "Parameterising the LINDA microsimulation model of benefit unit savings and labour supply," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 464, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    11. Bagchi, Shantanu, 2015. "Labor supply and the optimality of Social Security," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 167-185.
    12. Feigenbaum, James & Caliendo, Frank N. & Gahramanov, Emin, 2011. "Optimal irrational behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 285-303, March.
    13. Feigenbaum James A. & Li Geng, 2012. "Life Cycle Dynamics of Income Uncertainty and Consumption," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-49, May.
    14. Shantanu Bagchi, 2016. "Differential Mortality and the Progressivity of Social Security," Working Papers 2016-03, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2016.
    15. Geng Li & James Feigenbaum, 2009. "A Nonparametric Characterization of Income Uncertainty over the Lifecycle," 2009 Meeting Papers 464, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2010. "A semiparametric characterization of income uncertainty over the life cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. repec:nsr:niesrd:406 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:pit:wpaper:359 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:ijm:journl:v10:y:2017:i:1:p:135-166 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:32:y:2008:i:12:p:3917-3938. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.